2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

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豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-04-14 15:22

呃你这只是一个小样本。

普遍认为有大量漏诊的。包括住了院的也很多没测试或者测试结果尚未出来。也有好了都没来得及测的。死亡的也有,据说最近纽约不少死了也没来得及测的,其他州验尸官也抱怨测试能力不足。南湾和加州公布住院病人确诊和疑似数字。但是疑似也是症状高度疑似没有别的解释,已测等结果的。确诊总人数和确诊住院人数是10:1.未住院的有多少疑似目前没人知道。 加州确诊和疑似现在降到1:1了一两周前1:2。现在总算清了一些backlog.

华大宣布几个医院开始对所有入院病人测试。这个是测试有余力了才做得到。纽约长老会医院对所有入院孕妇检测,有症状的100%阳性,无症状的10%阳性。加起来10%出头。挺恐怖的比例。当然快生的孕妇看医生次数多,比普遍人群感染率高。

反正我们本地卫生部门一再强调直接比较各地确诊数字意义不大,因为检测能力和要求相去甚远。斯坦福这个抗体抽查测试,还有华大流感研究一直做的抽查病毒测试,以及华大对基因测序的系统生物学分析,都能够给我们更全面的估计。
Last edited by 豪情 on 2020-04-14 15:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-14 15:36

Mortality rate 和重症的比例,现在光看总比例已经很不准了。感染上病毒有多大几率会住院,进ICU,死亡,不仅体现病毒本身的 virulence,以及小豪说的多少人得到及时诊断,而且跟外界的因素有关,尤其是当地医疗水平和感染者特征这两个因素。

如果当地医疗水平高,死亡率会明显较低。It makes a real difference. 如果感染者年老体弱,死亡率会明显升高。在 long-term care facility 传播的一片感染人群(不仅是老年人而且体质差或居住环境差),与在普通社区里传播的人群,重症率和死亡率可以差很多。

就算病毒不认国界和阶级,可惜重病率死亡率还是免不了外界条件的影响,sad but true。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-04-14 15:53

医疗水平高,崩溃了也不行。。。
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Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-14 16:07

It's all about probabilities. 医疗水平也是因素之一,当然最大的因素是。。。运气。。。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

putaopi
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by putaopi » 2020-04-14 16:29

我朋友工作的医院在LA 华人聚居区,说当地社区感染控制得不错,只有一例死于新冠病毒的患者,而且是已经hospice的。有义工给医护人员送餐送咖啡送手工口罩,很暖心。

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-04-14 16:37

我们附近也在认捐给压力最大的社区和公立医院工作人员送餐。送口罩有一阵子了。
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dropby
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by dropby » 2020-04-14 18:02

vivi wrote:
2020-04-13 14:54
我妈和我们住,这种想法我都不敢想。
Same here. literally我家有八旬老母。我差不多快三个月了除了必须出门都老实呆家里。

lucoco来科普下为什么食品买回来不需要消毒。我目前grocery买回家没有消毒,就是戴着手套把外包装先扔掉。前一阵还给面包啥的换个袋子,现在也懒了。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-15 9:08

川皇宣布停止给世界卫生组织钱了。没钱援助世界抗疫,世界上的传染病会越来越多。还有如此愚蠢之人,I have run out of words。 :lol: 川普果然是美国梦的典型:Anyone can grow up to become the president of the USA. Anyone (as long as you are male).

让我想起电视剧 Scandal 里男主角天天对着情人喊:I am the leader of the free world! 看的时候还觉得好笑,现在想起真的好讽刺呀。For a short few years, this was actually true. 想象力再丰富,胆子再大再混不吝的 Shonda Rhymes 也编不出这种笑话来。

目前跟 1177BC 里面描述的崩溃状况越来越象了,而且显然美帝在这个过程中是 leader of the free world.

-------------------

人民的希望在中国的临床试验之一中止了,因为没人参加:

https://endpts.com/gilead-takes-a-hit-a ... emdesivir/

大家先别急着骂中国的临床试验环境,这个试验的人群是 mild to moderate 症状,看来 risk-benefit 比例相当麻麻,不合适用药。尤其是中国已经在用 favipiravir 了,确实没人去试 remdesivir。

另外法国的 Sanofi 不出所料已经在搞疫苗了;GSK 也在搞。现在就剩 Merck 我还没看到动静。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-04-15 9:26

Merck 这次好奇怪, 一直没消息, 莫不是在准备整个大的?
前段时间听说他们要spinoff 整个Keytruda , 最近也没啥gossip...
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

tiffany
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by tiffany » 2020-04-15 9:55

Keytruda 是他们最大的 money maker,有千个临床实验进行时,我印象里。不过我印象里他们是买了BMS 的专利,所以也得分人钱来着。这个要真分出去,我老觉得跟加州独立一样 :mrgreen:
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Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-04-15 10:20

favipiravir 有效的话,为什么fujifilm 还没有到处推?
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-15 10:26

Knowing wrote:
2020-04-15 10:20
favipiravir 有效的话,为什么fujifilm 还没有到处推?
Well they are trying.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science ... rug-avigan
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-04-15 11:27

还不赶紧送两成干股给川皇,让他推,大家米西米西
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-15 13:41

Knowing wrote:
2020-04-15 11:27
还不赶紧送两成干股给川皇,让他推,大家米西米西
I wish this were a joke, but it's not.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-04-15 15:11

哎嘛,还是女性生命力强,今天一个106岁的老太太从伯明翰医院康复出院了!
5. 'Oldest' coronavirus patient, 106, leaves hospital
A 106-year-old great-grandmother, thought to be Britain's oldest patient to recover from coronavirus, was applauded by staff as she left Birmingham's City Hospital on Tuesday after three weeks in hospital. Retired shopworker Connie Titchen said she felt "very lucky" to have "fought off the virus".
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-15 17:43

我们本州的数据也是,女性确诊比例高一点,但是住院率低于男性。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

simonsun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by simonsun » 2020-04-15 18:58

看到两个名人名言,分享一下。
“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'” -- Isaac Asimov
"As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron." -- H. L. Mencken
Violent delights.

tiffany
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by tiffany » 2020-04-15 21:59

:mrgreen: 绝,太绝了
有酒有酒 闲饮东窗

CAVA
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by CAVA » 2020-04-16 4:33

精辟!!

对比一下新西兰总理自愿减薪与国民共患难,和德国总理的新闻发布吧:

https://twitter.com/BenjAlvarez1/status ... d-52305053

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-04-16 5:34

My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge. -- so well said.

我爱默克尔!她真是世界的栋梁。

UK 第一批新款改良呼吸机今天通过批准,下周就可以产出数百台,到五月初每周可生产一千五百台。基于现有设计,修改结构使大批制造更容易,并方便每个钟头开关抽取肺部积水。科研公司联手制造公司,政府答应承受可能的法律责任,空中巴士把位于威尔士附近高端设计制造线重新构造从做喷气机引擎改造为造呼吸机,英国的工程制造业实力在关键时刻闪了光。
UK government approves first new ventilator
As the coronavirus spread through the UK the government realised it needed many more ventilators, and called on British engineers to create new machines for the front line.

The first design has now been approved. Oxford-based firm Penlon worked with other companies - including Formula One racing teams, Ford and Siemens - to get the design finished, and the government has put in 15,000 orders.

Penlon’s Prima ES02 model will begin shipping today, with the first 40 devices heading to a Ministry of Defence base before being delivered to hospitals. Hundreds of units are expected to be built over the next week.

The government has promised it will shield manufacturers of new ventilators from the cost of potential legal claims over intellectual property infringements, or personal injury caused by defective machines, according to a report in the Financial Times on Thursday.
Nevertheless, she persisted.

april
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by april » 2020-04-16 10:31

关于李文亮医生的童书,可以免费下载,英德西意四种语言
意大利作家Francesca Cavallo创作的那本《李医生和戴皇冠的病毒》一书在网上可以免费下载的(https://douc.cc/4BO2ri)故事只有11页,5分钟可看完,看完再评论不迟。
不得不承认,刚看到这本书的消息时我的感受也是矛盾的,在太多互捅刀子的争论中,首先想到的竟是“这会不会是其他国家给孩子们妖魔化中国的?孩子们长大了会怎么想?”随之而来是愤怒:谁要想把儿童卷入大人间的腌臜龃龉,简直天良丧尽。
然后去下载了这本书,惊讶于书中温柔、克制的笔触。从书里读出来,作者想告诉小读者们的是:面对新的病毒所有人都是无知和脆弱的,但现在有很多医生和科学家在寻找解决方法,无论是政府、医院还是小朋友都应该尊重科学,好好待在家里等待解决方案的出现。
讲了李医生发现异样“流感”以后的反应,讲了有人找上门要他噤声,讲了后来他得到了道歉但为时已晚,讲了无数武汉医生和科研人员不顾个人安慰保护人民。还讲了什么呢——讲了虽然武汉的疫情给世界亮起警灯,但大多数国家都无视了这一点,就像李医生的警告被无视一样。因此更多无辜的人承受了无知和傲慢的代价。讲了无症状感染,告诉小朋友乖乖在家很重要。
就是这样一本语气淡淡的小书。或许童书是一块试金石,试出人的底色——我们想要对孩子们讲述什么,我们想要建成的未来世界是什么样子的。
Image
He looked like a small panther, and he moved like a patch of night.

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-04-16 10:44

泪目。
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putaopi
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by putaopi » 2020-04-16 11:09

同泪目。所有关于李文亮医生的文字和消息,都让我悲从中来。他温和无害的性格,在生命最后时刻的勇气,还有那张训诫书上的手印和字迹,象征了背后巨大的悲剧。

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-04-16 12:24

方方日记在海外出版掀起了“递刀子”的阴谋论,让很多原来追读的读者开始心存疑虑。就跟当初很多阴谋论说一旦WHO宣布PHEIC中国就会被作为疫区禁航禁运让很多人自发禁言一样。
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星光
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 星光 » 2020-04-16 12:38

看到微博上有人贴了这张照片。
巴黎圣母院的火灾居然已经过去一年了。世界变成了这样。
Image

CAVA
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by CAVA » 2020-04-16 12:51

抱抱星光。我们所珍惜的在现时现刻都显得那么脆弱。

tiffany
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by tiffany » 2020-04-16 13:29

纽约呆家令延长了俩星期
有酒有酒 闲饮东窗

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-04-16 15:28

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/ear ... treatment/

对人民的希望又激起了希望。
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putaopi
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by putaopi » 2020-04-16 16:35

在Gilead工作的朋友说业内人士觉得这个药有效,舆论觉得还不够好。问题是重症死亡患者很多是因为并发症,只抗病毒已经回力无天。轻症患者用也许更有效,但是现在各种局限又不能大量给轻症用。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-16 17:00

如果人民的希望的效果显著超过 placebo,会批准的。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-04-16 17:04

期待临床报告!
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-16 18:46

So far data on hydroxychloroquine are pretty iffy. Unlikely to be very effective.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-04-17 14:15

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... nstalled=0

斯坦福在南湾普查抗体的结果。估计感染率2.5%。死亡率小于0.5%。武汉也在做。
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Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-17 14:16

NIH 在别处也开始查抗体,其实这件事本来应该 CDC 做的,现在大概都不敢出头了。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-04-17 14:39

某大药厂测一个Colorado小镇,8000,初步结果说近于1%。
这个报告说sc估计感染数字是确诊数字的50倍。
照这个我觉得纽约市估计都接近群体免疫了。

所以死亡率是流感五倍这个数量级? 易感人群比例是流感五六倍对吧,每年20%人群得流感。传染率r0是流感四五倍。所以集中爆发。
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Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-17 14:52

波士顿医生在 Mayo Clinic Proceeding 期刊上发了篇文章,描述 COVID-19 的临床特征,与其它呼吸道感染的区别重点在于,感冒症状几天后才发生呼吸急促的现象。感染初期症状很不明显,即使发烧也可能很低。最特别的症状是失去嗅觉。
One of the only early hints to the diagnosis is loss of smell which many of our patients report losing during the first few days of illness.
他们指出医生可以通过询问近期呼吸状况的变化来诊断,尤其是体力活动带来的呼吸困难。就是说也许静态时没啥感觉,但是一走路或用力就立刻感到虚弱头晕,而且经常是发烧咳嗽了几天后才出现而不是立刻出现,多为无痰干咳。
The most useful factor to monitor is oxygen saturation which often drops precipitously with exertion, even in some previously healthy patients.
In contrast, in patients with COVID-19 we often see the appearance of cough and fever at the onset, with dyspnea occurring a few days later, sometimes even after the fever has abated.
一些感染了普通病毒的病人会因为 anxiety 而诱发呼吸困难的症状。Anxiety 带来的呼吸困难一般见于静态甚至睡前,而 COVID-19 导致的呼吸困难基本上全是 exertion 时发生。而且不需要很强烈的体力活动,就算是普通的 daily activities 也会让人感到呼吸困难和虚弱,大概近似维多利亚时代穿了束胸的女性那样吧。
with anxiety, onset is often immediately after the first symptoms of infection while with SARS-CoV-2 dyspnea occurs several days after the initial symptoms begin... In our patients with COVID-related anxiety, the dyspnea tends to occur at rest or when trying to fall asleep but does not become more pronounced when participating in daily activities. Patients with COVID-related anxiety often describe the sensation of not being able to get enough air into their lungs, while with SARS-CoV-2 infection dyspnea is consistently worse with exertion.
------------

我觉得传染率和死亡率很难跟流感进行对比,因为每年不同地区的流感接种率有一定差别,而且每年的流感疫苗的防护率也不同。如果完全没有疫苗,并且是第一次进入人类,可能 influenza 比 SARS-CoV-2 更严重,还好我们现在有疫苗还有药物。
Last edited by Jun on 2020-04-17 15:22, edited 1 time in total.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-04-17 15:07

我的意思是流感在美国实际上只有15-20%的人发病,疫苗的作用包括在里面了,而这个病人人易感,传染速度又快。可以造成大多数都感染。所以感染人数可以差五六倍,加上传播速度r0快(这个也包含了疫苗的作用,流感现在是1.5),重症和死亡率也高于流感,对医疗系统短期冲击很大。
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Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-17 15:13

豪情 wrote:
2020-04-17 15:07
我的意思是流感在美国实际上只有15-20%的人发病,疫苗的作用包括在里面了,而这个病人人易感,传染速度又快。可以造成大多数都感染。所以感染人数可以差五六倍,加上传播速度快,重症和死亡率也高于流感,对医疗系统短期冲击很大。

Yeah! Herd immunity! (I sound like a MAGAt.)

我的意思是病毒本身特征跟流感很象,差别是 SARS-CoV-2 这是第一次跟人类接触,所以比较危险,死人多。就像火星落到干柴上,我们这些毫无抵抗力的人类就是干柴。烧过几遍之后再来就会慢一些,因为剩下的柴湿一点点。流感对于人类来说就是已经烧过很多遍了才不那么严重的。不是说这个不危险。

类似的现象,同样是天花,在中世纪欧洲来回流行了很多年,在欧洲人群中已经留下了一定程度的免疫力,就算爆发死亡率也没有那么高了。但是传播到新大陆时,一转眼就杀死大批从来没见过这东西的土著体内的免疫系统,西班牙殖民者固然扔过染病的毯子,但最大因素还是因为天花病毒遇见了全新的新大陆。

Right now we're all Indians.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-18 7:46

对于 SARS-CoV-2 的起源问题的阴谋论越演越烈了,而且官方推动民间起哄,简直莫名其妙。这是要干啥?下一盘很大的棋?还是在抓住川皇提供的机会赶紧推行“战狼式”超级大国的外交,给美帝一个致命打击?真是党中央的心,海底针呀。

Foreign Policy 的本周 roundup:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/15/ch ... formation/

官方推动新冠病毒是美国制造的生化武器的阴谋论:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coron ... oronavirus

HIV发现者之一,法国(前?)科学家 Luc Montagnier 插一脚进来,跟着宣传 SARS-CoV-2 是人造生化武器,给阴谋论火上浇油:
https://www.ibtimes.sg/nobel-winning-sc ... -lab-43277
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-04-18 8:11

太看的起美国的科研水平了,CDC 连最基本的从病人样本里分离培养出病毒都搞不定,还指望再做啥人工改造?
看看学术界发的文章就知道,病毒研究搞得最厉害的都在亚洲啊。。。
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-04-18 8:15

我简直太烦中美互掐生化武器说了。两国都死了那么多人还掐。啥人做生化武器把自己都做进去的。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-18 8:39

并不是说美帝不做生化武器(CDC 不搞这个,主要在马里兰的 Fort Detrick,参见剧集 The Americans)。但是这个东西真的不是。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-04-18 15:48

Jun wrote:
2020-04-18 8:39
并不是说美帝不做生化武器(CDC 不搞这个,主要在马里兰的 Fort Detrick,参见剧集 The Americans)。但是这个东西真的不是。
COVID19 这个威力还不太够吧? 不够rapid, 不够deadly...
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

simonsun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by simonsun » 2020-04-18 16:28

关于Santa Clara感染率的文章被批评统计课学得太差:

https://twitter.com/NimwegenLab/status/ ... 2366900232
Violent delights.

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2020-04-18 16:54

几年前福布斯有一篇关于反疫苗的文章提到了Luc Montagnier,很不客气地说他has gone off the deep end into pseudoscience,各种wild claims,又拿不出证据,很久没有发paper了,还支持homeopathy,真是a sad coda to a brilliant medical career

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalz ... 998e655c53

covid-19作为生化武器真的不合格,威力不够大,传播不够快,也不能精准打击,还没有解药,差评。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-18 17:40

Isn't it funny that PBS Newshour just did a report a few weeks ago on the controversy around the HIV discovery and Montagnier?

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how ... search-war

当时可是大件事哇,充满了互扔狗屎的学术混战和骂街。混战的另一方,Robert Gallo 也是一个非常有争议的人,因为我曾经认识过一个 Gallo 的助手(完全是偶然),听说过一些内幕,可惜当时我对这件事和参与人物都一无所知,听得稀里糊涂一头雾水,现在回想这些精彩八卦已经记不清楚了。哦对了,记得忒清楚的一条是,Gallo 每年会给业界权威/同行好友写一圈儿信,求他们向诺贝尔委员会提名自己,然而大家都假装没看见 ...

说起脑子糊涂了的诺贝尔奖科学家,谁能忘记 Linus Pauling 呢?就算是爱因斯坦也看错了量子力学。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-04-18 18:19

simonsun wrote:
2020-04-18 16:28
关于Santa Clara感染率的文章被批评统计课学得太差:

https://twitter.com/NimwegenLab/status/ ... 2366900232
Bayesian 统计学我不懂,看到另一个人提起的 sampling bias 倒是很有道理:

https://twitter.com/yellingatwind/statu ... 8381371392

这些作者是 Stanford 的。就这水平,啧啧。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-04-18 18:51

到处被传播的美国11月就有新冠的理论也是斯坦福发的,不过是个历史教授。
却将万字平戎策 换得东家种树书

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2020-04-19 8:43

维生素C包治百病的Linus Pauling!James Watson后来也不怎么样。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-04-21 15:21

“Even with “a highly accelerated timeline" that includes demonstrating safety and efficacy in humans and then designing, developing and implementing a mass immunization program, getting to a herd immunity of 70% to 80% would take until 2023 or 2024, Porges figures.”

https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/a ... alyst-says
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

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