2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

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Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-11 20:20

Data source:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

按照人口平均的接种率,前几名是以色列,阿联酋,巴林,英国,美国,丹麦,冰岛 ... 但是要知道美国批准疫苗早于欧盟几个星期,所以欧洲国家开始得晚,过几个星期应该也会上升的。加拿大不知道是哪一天批准的,好像比美国晚两星期,这也就不能直接比较接种率。

美国的问题是接种的速度很慢,发出去的疫苗来不及注射,在物流方面的管理太差,inefficiency 严重. 全国数据参照 CDC 的网站:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... index.html

至今发出去的疫苗只有三分之一用上了。当然这个数据其实也不太准,因为各州有不同的数据报告工具,例如 Virginia 的工具据说不好用,上报数据落后于实际数据。总之就是,因为联邦政府瘫痪不管,导致很严重的 bottleneck 和效率低。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

dropby
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by dropby » 2021-01-12 11:17

加拿大挺早就批准了,也没听说有发出去的疫苗没有用上的。不过加拿大总体来说抗疫比美国还是强不少的,天灾没办法。小国寡民国力不够强大也没办法。

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2021-01-12 15:43

求科普马上要申请批准的j & j
却将万字平戎策 换得东家种树书

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-12 15:49

豪情 wrote:
2021-01-12 15:43
求科普马上要申请批准的j & j
纽时发过报道的:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ccine.html

年底之前完成了三期试验的 enrollment,最近一直在收集和分析数据,预计月底之前会公布结果并且递交 EUA。

这是一针的疫苗(如果有效率不高,厂家可能会考虑改成两针),优势是不需要冷冻,冷藏即可。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2021-01-12 15:59

两针的试验已经开始了吗
却将万字平戎策 换得东家种树书

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-12 16:10

豪情 wrote:
2021-01-12 15:59
两针的试验已经开始了吗
已经开始了。

但是一针的试验的数据还没公布。如果有效率50%以上我觉得也值。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2021-01-12 18:17

有道理,先批了大家打一针,等两针批了再去补
却将万字平戎策 换得东家种树书

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-12 22:18

在微博上看到一句话太精彩了赶紧记下来省得忘了,
猪圈的猪现在都自己磨刀么?
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-13 8:31

经过三次推迟之后SinoVac 的灭活疫苗的临床试验结果出来了:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN29H2CE

之前有印尼和土耳其的数据声称70%-90%有效率,但都是 interim analysis,没有具体细节。

Sinopharm 的灭活疫苗,在去年12月30日的新闻发布会上宣布三期临床有效率为79%,并且被中国药监局正式批准。不过尚未公布也未发表具体数据:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787

呼唤 @lucoco 同学,有什么果汁八卦吗? :rabbit001:
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2021-01-13 12:24

这也太寒碜了点吧……坐等八卦
Nevertheless, she persisted.

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2021-01-13 18:20

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local- ... ccinations

魁省老人院7个老人打了第一针后28天之内又测出阳性。现在信息太少,不确切知道是哪天感染的,症状如何。
又没头脑又不高兴

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-13 18:27

vivi wrote:
2021-01-13 18:20
https://montrealgazette.com/news/local- ... ccinations

魁省老人院7个老人打了第一针后28天之内又测出阳性。现在信息太少,不确切知道是哪天感染的,症状如何。
不奇怪。越来越多数据表明第一针 mRNA 疫苗之后到第二针之前的有效率大约是50%-60%,需要第二针 booster shot 才能让绝大多数人达到免疫力。老年人尤其免疫反应弱,需要第二针。

以色列的数据得出类似结论:
Initial Israeli data: First Pfizer shot curbs infections by 50% after 14 days
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2021-01-14 2:41

以色列特牛,这才几天啊,刷刷的已经把20%的人口打了第一轮。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

CAVA
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by CAVA » 2021-01-14 5:06

上周某人亲戚的亲戚中有老人染上新冠后去世,她的儿子六十多岁也染上了,送进ICU吸氧,情况不太好。据说昨天开始用Remdesivir,一看正是你们一直说的人民的希望。

瑞典最近的情况也严峻,我熟悉的同事中有染上的,症状不轻。据说政府已经通过法律,有必要时会lockdown。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-14 7:38

CAVA wrote:
2021-01-14 5:06
瑞典最近的情况也严峻,我熟悉的同事中有染上的,症状不轻。据说政府已经通过法律,有必要时会lockdown。
瑞典还在计划三月份开花样滑冰世锦赛,我看是不行了,还是取消了吧。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Elysees
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Elysees » 2021-01-14 16:36

今天看到的新闻说挪威有23例Pfizer疫苗注射后的死亡,正在调查啥的,但这个数字好像各家报道不一样,有的说是两例,有的说是19例。如果真是23,也太高了吧。
我自横刀向天笑,笑完我就去睡觉。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-14 19:09

Elysees wrote:
2021-01-14 16:36
今天看到的新闻说挪威有23例Pfizer疫苗注射后的死亡,正在调查啥的,但这个数字好像各家报道不一样,有的说是两例,有的说是19例。如果真是23,也太高了吧。
我看了吓一跳,去 Google 了一下,发现只有一家网站报道23人死亡,过去一看,是乌克兰的什么网站(然而是英文),文章里援引一个叫做 "European News" 的文章,我点了链接之后立刻跳出一条 MALWARE 警告,就没敢过去看。但是完全没有主流新闻媒体报道。这太可疑了。New York Post 一星期之前报道过挪威有2个人接种后死亡,据说正在调查。NY Post 也是不太靠谱的小报,类似英国的 Daily Mail,没看见更大的新闻媒体报道了。可见连RT都没掺和在里面。

挪威是 European Medicines Agency (EMA) 的成员国之一,虽然它不属于 EU。于是我又跑去 EMA 的网站看了看——这么大的安全问题,连个“正在调查”的公告也没有。
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regu ... st-updates
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Elysees
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Elysees » 2021-01-14 22:08

我是看赌徒说的,她住在挪威,说是
NRK 报导是,25000例接受疫苗注射里29起不良反应,其中13例死亡,9例严重反应,7例非严重反应,死亡者年龄都在80以上,部分超过90
我也是在google上找了一圈没找到相关消息,NYPost那个是一周前的了,感觉很过时了,但我也不知道她这个NRK是不是挪威语的
我自横刀向天笑,笑完我就去睡觉。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-14 23:19

Sorry. Cannot read Norwegian. Cannot comment without details and data.

For context, in the Phase 3 clinical trial, 103 of 18801 volunteers who received the vaccine had at least 1 serious adverse event (SAE) from Dose 1 through 1 month after Dose 2. SAEs are not unexpected.

Also should look at the causes of death and the background rate of death for people >80 years old within this period.

Again, I cannot have an opinion without more specifics. I'm sure EMA has been informed.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2021-01-14 23:27

这么大的事儿一点儿英文报道没有不太可能啊。
又没头脑又不高兴

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-15 9:08

最重要的问题是这13个老年人的死因是啥,跟注射疫苗的时间关系,以及比例(占接种老年人%?)这类细节。如果全部是呼吸系统或者免疫系统相关的死亡,则至少“疑似”跟疫苗有关。如果仅仅是注射了疫苗之后,不论原因和时间,死了,那就需要看看他们的死因有没有共同点,以及跟他们的基础病是否有更直接的关联。

当地的具体政策不知道,欧洲一些国家的规定是第一批先给年纪很大和有基础病的人群先接种,而医护人员下一批,这两万五千人的基数全是老年人呢还是只有一部分是老年人?不知道就没法算%。而且,这一批老年人的(即使无疫苗)自然死亡率是多少呢?也就是 population background rate. (年底到一月初这段时间里,是老年人死亡率最高的时间段。)然后需要拿这个 background rate 跟接种后老年人的死亡率对比,看看后者是不是高出很多。

还有一个很重要的问题是这13个人是不是,或者有多少是,死于 COVID-19。这就不是一个疫苗安全性的问题,而是一个有效性的问题。因为我们已经知道老年人在接种之后产生的抗体数量远小于年轻人,再加上第一针之后的平均有效率只有 50%-60%,所以死亡的 timing 也很重要。

这些数据都没有,仅仅扔出一个13个老年人死亡的数字,真的没法说。

不过呢,我相信挪威的卫生部门和 EMA 有这些数据细节并且正在分析,如果有什么消息他们会通知公众的。I trust them.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2021-01-15 10:54

去扫了一眼David Quammen的推,有人问他对挪威这个报道怎么看,他说: Don't know. I'll read science--if there is science。的确,没有具体数据不好说。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by simonsun » 2021-01-15 15:29

作为人民教师我(无耻地)插了队下周日打Moderna疫苗。
Violent delights.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-15 18:56

simonsun wrote:
2021-01-15 15:29
作为人民教师我(无耻地)插了队下周日打Moderna疫苗。
打过上来报告一下副作用哦。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

putaopi
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by putaopi » 2021-01-15 23:50

simonsun wrote:
2021-01-15 15:29
作为人民教师我(无耻地)插了队下周日打Moderna疫苗。
点赞插队!羡慕嫉妒。

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2021-01-16 6:08

话说事实和perception 的背离,我认识的所以人里,只有一个纽约壮年弯男(不知道为啥)和西门孙轮到了。英国我认识的那么多人里只有我小姑子(急症室一线护士)打了。哦还有一些著名的老头老太:女王和王夫什么的。其他国家几乎没听说谁打了。美国疫苗推出号称最慢,这不科学!
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2021-01-16 9:08

来看看美国运作疫苗发放的大乌龙:

Vaccine reserve was exhausted when Trump administration vowed to release it, dashing hopes of expanded access
When Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced this week that the federal government would begin releasing coronavirus vaccine doses that had been held in reserve for second shots, no such reserve existed, according to state and federal officials briefed on distribution plans. The Trump administration had already begun shipping out what was available, starting at the end of December, taking second doses for the two-dose regimen directly off the manufacturing line.
现在这些打过第一针的群众很可能无法及时收到第二针。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

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