2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

入得谷来,祸福自求。
lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-12-08 7:51

老爷爷为啥没有戴口罩?

半年肯定没有问题, 哪里看到Moderna vaccine 190 多天还可以测到抗体。

校友群里最近几天热闹极了, 在moderna, pfizer, JNJ, AZ 工作的都有,大家讨论的话题基本就是到底哪个好啊, 你们公司 (@moderna) 会不会给员工优先打? 怎么可能, 美国政府买单 凭啥你们还可以优先,hello, 我也缴了税的好不好 (围观群众)。 moderna 的想打pfizer 疫苗的怎么操作? @AZ 听说你们那个临床90% 有效的是因为灌装制剂的时候少装了一半造成的,这个怎么发生的? 怎么可能发生的? CMC QC/QA 都干啥去了?
当然制药公司都有保密协议的,没人会透露公司信息,但是互相踩的感觉真好啊。。。
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-08 8:04

哈哈哈 lucoco 校友群太逗了。

我昨天跟加州同学短信了一下问 lock down。她说医院里很忙,又忙了。

我觉得这个疫苗至少能顶一年,是至少,可能更长。

老年人住 nursing home 不能探望是最惨的,病人和家属都很痛苦。无数美国人民已经 suffer 了快一年。但是临终,说实话,真没必要隔离,染就染上呗。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-08 8:30

洛可可的校友群真逗,像那种杜撰的‘乾隆的朋友圈’对话。 :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
临终不能陪伴是怕家属传染上吧?毕竟八十多岁的老人的儿女也六十多了。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-08 9:28

Moderna 疫苗在193天之后仍能测到足够抗体,我在前一页上贴了数据链接 (NEJM).

后天的 FDA Advisory Meeting 公告和会议直播链接:

https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees ... nouncement

我还没看。先连个报道:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fda-sci ... d=74602903

Meeting materials (临床试验数据总结,好难找):

https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees ... nouncement
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-08 9:52

意思是FDA基本觉得没问题了?
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-08 9:56

Knowing wrote:
2020-12-08 9:52
意思是FDA基本觉得没问题了?
I think FDA is favorable toward approval on an emergency basis.

Will need more long-term safety data for full approval.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-08 10:02

I definitely feel the line between emergency approval and long term approval has been blurry everywhere now.
Nevertheless, she persisted.

dropby
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by dropby » 2020-12-08 10:08

我们优先级是养老院,80以上老人,一线医护,无家可归流浪汉。我就盼着老妈赶紧打上,马上能松一口气。

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-08 10:26

是吗你打算让你妈去流浪? :mrgreen:
英国排的特清楚,第一拨80+,一线医护,养老院工作人员。第二拨75+。第三拨70+。第四拨65+。第五拨16-65岁间身体有现存问题的。昨天不小心还得罪了我婆婆 -- 因为我问你们应该是第二批吧?婆婆很不高兴的指出公公75岁是第二批,自己还没到75所以得第三批! :worthy: :worthy: :worthy:
Nevertheless, she persisted.

dropby
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by dropby » 2020-12-08 10:40

我妈打了疫苗我对小朋友playdate, 外卖啥的就可以放松一点了。现在因为她是超高龄加基础病,我家特别严防死守,从2月份开始就基本不外卖了,playdate也是让娃去别人家。

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-08 10:48

牛津/AZ 疫苗的柳叶刀论文出来了
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 120820.php
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-08 12:23

有人不禁浮想联翩:你们猜猜,比尔盖茨终于控制住了来自考文垂的九十岁老太太玛格丽特的第一天,会干点什么?
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-08 12:35

简单地看了一下 FDA 总结的临床数据,有效性方面应该是没问题,很笃定,主要的考虑是安全性方面。
The most common solicited adverse reactions were injection site reactions (84.1%), fatigue (62.9%), headache (55.1%), muscle pain (38.3%), chills (31.9%), joint pain (23.6%), fever (14.2%); severe adverse reactions occurred in 0.0% to 4.6% of participants, were more frequent after Dose 2 than after Dose 1, and were generally less frequent in participants ≥55 years of age (≤2.8%) as compared to younger participants (≤4.6%).
反应蛮多的,几乎每个人都有 injection site reactions,其它疫苗反应也不少。老年人反应比较小,年轻人比较大;第二针反应比较大,第一针比较小。这些都说明副作用是因为体内免疫系统对疫苗的作用。严重的反应倒是没有什么,有四个人患 Bell's palsy(面部神经痉挛),全在疫苗组,但是这东西也不是很严重。

还没有在儿童中试验,目前的受试者都是16岁以上。估计批准儿童接种要晚很多。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-08 13:19

Knowing wrote:
2020-12-08 10:48
牛津/AZ 疫苗的柳叶刀论文出来了
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 120820.php
我去扫了一眼。默默同情写报告的 medical writer 三分钟,四个不同的试验要合起来报告,剂量也都不一样,好痛苦。

值得注意的是试验中发生了三例 transverse myelitis,都是疫苗组,而且一开始都被研究人员定性为 possibly related。感觉有点多 ... 虽然后来被 "independent panel" 专家定性为 unlikely to be related,我还是有点点疑虑,以后肯定会被药审机构 scrutinize。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Elysees
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Elysees » 2020-12-08 13:38

Knowing wrote:
2020-12-08 12:23
有人不禁浮想联翩:你们猜猜,比尔盖茨终于控制住了来自考文垂的九十岁老太太玛格丽特的第一天,会干点什么?
哈?这从何说起?
我自横刀向天笑,笑完我就去睡觉。

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2020-12-08 13:58

哈哈,比尔盖茨很开心!有图有真像:
Image
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-08 14:55

Elysees wrote:
2020-12-08 13:38
Knowing wrote:
2020-12-08 12:23
有人不禁浮想联翩:你们猜猜,比尔盖茨终于控制住了来自考文垂的九十岁老太太玛格丽特的第一天,会干点什么?
哈?这从何说起?
因为老有傻X说整个新冠是比尔盖茨的阴谋,他制造了病毒又制造疫苗其实在疫苗里加了微型芯片趁机打到全世界人身体里他就可以用芯片来控制全世界的人了
Nevertheless, she persisted.

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-12-08 15:24

Sounds like the worst nightmare for CMC and manufacturing if Bill Gates did place such order/s for such vaccines to be made under GMP condition.
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

Elysees
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Elysees » 2020-12-08 17:07

Find your place in a Vaccine line.

我去填了一下,我在金县大约在160多万位吧(金县人口190多万?),全美大概2.6+亿人要在我前面,跟我估计的差不多。等着吧。
dropby wrote:
2020-12-08 10:40
我妈打了疫苗我对小朋友playdate, 外卖啥的就可以放松一点了。现在因为她是超高龄加基础病,我家特别严防死守,从2月份开始就基本不外卖了,playdate也是让娃去别人家。
这个,你们小朋友去别人家playdate,不是一样也有风险么?你们回来就是消毒她?
我自横刀向天笑,笑完我就去睡觉。

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-08 17:26

Jun wrote:
2020-12-08 13:19
Knowing wrote:
2020-12-08 10:48
牛津/AZ 疫苗的柳叶刀论文出来了
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 120820.php
我去扫了一眼。默默同情写报告的 medical writer 三分钟,四个不同的试验要合起来报告,剂量也都不一样,好痛苦。

值得注意的是试验中发生了三例 transverse myelitis,都是疫苗组,而且一开始都被研究人员定性为 possibly related。感觉有点多 ... 虽然后来被 "independent panel" 专家定性为 unlikely to be related,我还是有点点疑虑,以后肯定会被药审机构 scrutinize。
哪儿说三起transverse myelitis?只有一起吧

Safety was monitored for a median of 3.4 months in all 23,745 participants from the UK, Brazil and South Africa. Out of 23,745 participants, 168 experienced a total of 175 severe adverse events over the period, but 172 events were unrelated to the COVID-19 or control vaccines. One event was in the control group (a case of haemolytic anaemia), one event was in the COVID-19 vaccine group (a case of transverse myelitis considered possibly related to the vaccine), and a case of severe fever (> 40oC) was reported in South Africa in a participant who remains masked to group allocation and recovered rapidly without an alternative diagnosis and was not hospitalised. All three participants have recovered or are recovering, and continue to be part of the trial.
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-08 17:48

Knowing wrote:
2020-12-08 17:26
哪儿说三起transverse myelitis?只有一起吧

Safety was monitored for a median of 3.4 months in all 23,745 participants from the UK, Brazil and South Africa. Out of 23,745 participants, 168 experienced a total of 175 severe adverse events over the period, but 172 events were unrelated to the COVID-19 or control vaccines. One event was in the control group (a case of haemolytic anaemia), one event was in the COVID-19 vaccine group (a case of transverse myelitis considered possibly related to the vaccine), and a case of severe fever (> 40oC) was reported in South Africa in a participant who remains masked to group allocation and recovered rapidly without an alternative diagnosis and was not hospitalised. All three participants have recovered or are recovering, and continue to be part of the trial.
在论文原文里:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 1/fulltext
Three cases of transverse myelitis were initially reported as suspected unexpected serious adverse reactions, with two in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine study arm, triggering a study pause for careful review in each case. Independent clinical review of these cases has indicated that one in the experimental group and one in the control group are unlikely to be related to study interventions, but a relationship remained possible in the third case.
我也看错了,有两例在疫苗组,但是一例在对照组。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-09 0:09

怕怕。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-09 5:11

这个链接里的会议时间是写错了吗?为什么写着下周四12/17号?
Jun wrote:
2020-12-08 9:28
Moderna 疫苗在193天之后仍能测到足够抗体,我在前一页上贴了数据链接 (NEJM).

后天的 FDA Advisory Meeting 公告和会议直播链接:

https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees ... nouncement

我还没看。先连个报道:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fda-sci ... d=74602903

Meeting materials (临床试验数据总结,好难找):

https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees ... nouncement
英国有两个有严重过敏病史的NHS工作人员打疫苗后有过敏反应。现在建议有严重过敏历史的人不要打。
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55244122

People with a history of significant allergic reactions should not have the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid jab, regulators say.

It came after two NHS workers had allergic reactions on Tuesday.

The advice applies to those who have had reactions to medicines, food or vaccines, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency said.

The two people had a reaction shortly after having the new jab, had treatment and are both fine now.

They are understood to have had an anaphylactoid reaction, which tends to involve a skin rash, breathlessness and sometimes a drop in blood pressure. This is not the same a potentially fatal anaphylaxis.

Both NHS workers have a history of serious allergies and carry adrenaline pens around with them.
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-09 7:09

12月17日的会是 Moderna vaccine.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-09 7:21

啊,他们真忙。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

vivi
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-12-09 17:32

Pfizer 的志愿者里一个严重过敏史的都没有吗?
又没头脑又不高兴

豪情
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 豪情 » 2020-12-09 17:53

选择志愿者时候就排除了吧。
却将万字平戎策 换得东家种树书

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-10 8:34

在局里工作的朋友给我发了视频链接:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owveMJB ... e=emb_logo

呵呵还好他们上了油管,如果用他们平时的 vendor 发 streaming 的话,大概早就 crash 了。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-10 9:38

10:37 am

CDC's Messonnier is talking about vaccine safety monitoring system.

Messonnier 就是开头一早警告说疫情会很严重的那个,被捂嘴。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-12-10 9:49

Pfizer 有4例Bell's palsy, 都是疫苗组的。
又没头脑又不高兴

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-10 9:53

vivi wrote:
2020-12-10 9:49
Pfizer 有4例Bell's palsy, 都是疫苗组的。
在 FDA 的 briefing materials 里面提到了。一方面来说,Bell's palsy 本身不是严重的事情,一般无需治疗可以自行好转:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-con ... c-20370028

另一方面,Bell's palsy 比较常见,在试验组的发生频率(4/40K)与 population 中的频率差不多。

FDA 说他们会要求跟踪这方面数据。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-10 10:26

看样子是通过没有问题了?
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-10 12:36

刚才去滑冰了,现在 Pfizer 正在 present。试验中不是每个人都测 COVID-19,而是有疑似症状会测,如果有完全无症状的带病毒者是没法发现的。接种后有没有可能仍然携带病毒甚至传播?这个问题恐怕要以后才慢慢收集数据才知道。

批准方面等下午advisory committee投了票就知道了。

StatNews 的实时报道(public comments没有直播):
Vaccine hesitancy was on full display during the one-hour open public hearing, as multiple speakers raised concerns about the safety of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and the legitimacy of granting early authorization based on limited data.

The skeptical comments, some of which veered uncomfortably close to dangerous conspiracy theories, underscore the challenge facing vaccine makers and public health officials in convincing Americans to get vaccinated with Covid vaccines.

One speaker, who described herself as a mother of a child “injured” by routine childhood vaccinations, urged the FDA to disclose all the ingredients that go into the Covid vaccine, including “aborted fetal cells.”
A sign of our times:
To be clear, these panels are not meant to be coronations of clinical data without anyone asking appropriately probing questions. But these days, distinguishing healthy skepticism from damaging anti-vaccine tropes is increasingly difficult. The FDA wants to encourage transparency in the review process to enhance vaccine confidence, but by doing so, it also opens up the possibility of amplifying people with the opposite agenda.
看感染人数,第一针之后0-10天,感染率两组基本一样,过了10天后就分开了,对照组继续攀升而疫苗组基本上就没怎么上涨。所以呢,第一针之后十天,大部分人就有抵抗力了,看样子不是马上有。
Last edited by Jun on 2020-12-10 13:01, edited 2 times in total.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

dropby
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by dropby » 2020-12-10 12:54

加拿大已经批准了16岁以上可以打辉瑞疫苗,Moderna的还在审批。第一批下周接种辉瑞疫苗,养老机构员工和一线医护。我妈妈有望一月份能打上。我今天刚看到加拿大全世界抢疫苗,预定数额是每人十只,虽然其实每人只需要两只。这是有多害怕抢不到啊。 :action077: :action077: :action077: 感觉从头到尾加拿大就是神经绷得特别紧。

vivi
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-12-10 15:25

Jun wrote:
2020-12-10 9:53
vivi wrote:
2020-12-10 9:49
Pfizer 有4例Bell's palsy, 都是疫苗组的。
在 FDA 的 briefing materials 里面提到了。一方面来说,Bell's palsy 本身不是严重的事情,一般无需治疗可以自行好转:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-con ... c-20370028

另一方面,Bell's palsy 比较常见,在试验组的发生频率(4/40K)与 population 中的频率差不多。

FDA 说他们会要求跟踪这方面数据。
全部发生在疫苗组,应该是4/20K?
又没头脑又不高兴

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-10 16:36

vivi wrote:
2020-12-10 15:25
Jun wrote:
2020-12-10 9:53
vivi wrote:
2020-12-10 9:49
Pfizer 有4例Bell's palsy, 都是疫苗组的。
在 FDA 的 briefing materials 里面提到了。一方面来说,Bell's palsy 本身不是严重的事情,一般无需治疗可以自行好转:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-con ... c-20370028

另一方面,Bell's palsy 比较常见,在试验组的发生频率(4/40K)与 population 中的频率差不多。

FDA 说他们会要求跟踪这方面数据。
全部发生在疫苗组,应该是4/20K?
你说得对,是4/20K。下面是 FDA briefing material 里面的:
The observed frequency of reported Bell’s palsy in the vaccine
group is consistent with the expected background rate in the general population, and there is no
clear basis upon which to conclude a causal relationship at this time, but FDA will recommend
surveillance for cases of Bell’s palsy with deployment of the vaccine into larger populations.
现在开始投票了。(小声说管投票的 FDA staff 长得有点像 Emily Blunt. :lol:

Question 1: Benefits outweigh risks? Yes 17, No 4, Abstain 1.

只有一个问题。算是支持批准了。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-10 16:54

终于!
今天死了3千人,感染快22万。好多ICU都快满了。
dropby wrote:
2020-12-10 12:54
加拿大已经批准了16岁以上可以打辉瑞疫苗,Moderna的还在审批。第一批下周接种辉瑞疫苗,养老机构员工和一线医护。我妈妈有望一月份能打上。我今天刚看到加拿大全世界抢疫苗,预定数额是每人十只,虽然其实每人只需要两只。这是有多害怕抢不到啊。 :action077: :action077: :action077: 感觉从头到尾加拿大就是神经绷得特别紧。
预定超过是因为怕有些不通过或者效果不好吧。你妈妈要是一月就能打上太好了。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

笑嘻嘻
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2020-12-10 17:06

应该是按照经济学人的一篇文章说的政府应该过度预定疫苗,因为有些疫苗未必能够及时出货。在过度预定疫苗上浪费的钱比耽误时间对经济的损失和纾困金要便宜多了。
云浆未饮结成冰

Elysees
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Elysees » 2020-12-10 17:08

辉瑞这算是在美国通过了吗?
感觉现在活在contagion这个电影里,电影没能capture的也就是总统选举了。
我自横刀向天笑,笑完我就去睡觉。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-10 17:22

大概这两天会正式批准。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Elysees
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Elysees » 2020-12-10 22:56

可总算等到了。
在纽时还是哪里看到一个调查,好像大约只有50%左右的美国民众确定要打疫苗,20+%肯定不打,剩下的还在考虑。这么说起来,也许不用等那么久就可以打上了。问题是,坚持不打的人,不还是会造成感染和大流行么....疫苗也不能百分百保护啊。
哎,心塞。
我自横刀向天笑,笑完我就去睡觉。

simonsun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by simonsun » 2020-12-10 23:33

100%打上当然最好。但是即使有50%打上,传染很快就减缓了,是好事不是坏事。
Violent delights.

Elysees
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Elysees » 2020-12-10 23:52

当然,当然,疫苗肯定是好事,但是不能全部接种,就得继续跟这病毒共存下去吧,哎。
我自横刀向天笑,笑完我就去睡觉。

笑嘻嘻
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2020-12-11 0:42

我听的广播里的管事儿的科学家(?)说要是能有2/3的群众打就达到免疫目标了。
云浆未饮结成冰

simonsun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by simonsun » 2020-12-11 3:04

Elysees wrote:
2020-12-10 23:52
当然,当然,疫苗肯定是好事,但是不能全部接种,就得继续跟这病毒共存下去吧,哎。
传播成这样,完全消灭不现实吧。如果疫苗阻止了大规模传播,治疗手段进步又降低了重症比率,可不就是大号流感了么。
Violent delights.

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-11 5:18

航空公司终于兴奋了,在准备全世界运干冰运疫苗。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-11 8:25

昨天开会的时候一个 committee member 就说到防止重症的问题。就是说虽然这个疫苗已经达到甚至超过了预定的 endpoint 即降低 COVID-19 的发病率(不包括无症状感染),但其实大家更关心的是防止重症和死亡的有效率,看上去是不错但显然数据还很少,因为疫苗组和对照组里患上重症的人都很少。这也没办法,临床试验虽然入了三四万人,但进行时间才四个月,而且前面两个月是传播率不高的夏秋季。所以还得等一等才会有足够的数据出来。

但是考虑到疫苗的生理机制,几乎可以肯定它们都可以降低感染后重症和死亡的风险,效果跟 flu vaccine 类似。即使病毒是新病毒,mRNA 疫苗是新技术,但免疫系统还是那个免疫系统,很大差别不大可能,如果体内有那么高的 neutralizing antibodies,抵抗力还是有的,问题只是有效率的高低罢了。

换言之,打疫苗就算不是100%有效,仍然是值得的。

Unfortunately, 反科学反疫苗运动在民间无法抑制,必定会有相当一部分人群(保守派自由派都有)拒绝接种,在美国这种文化环境里更难控制。病毒在人群里的传播肯定是长期的。就算没有这些人,因为 SARS-CoV-2 可以跳到动物宿主身上(猫狗和 mink 都已发生过),扑灭它基本上不可能。连 measles 都能卷土重来,有什么是可以杜绝的呢?至今也只有天花一只而已。人类总有一种自毁倾向,可能啥都改变不了。It's the real plague.

We'll have to live with uncertainty, probably indefinitely. 不要把希望寄托在清零上,谁也不能清零。

每次有人问我,新冠是不是象流感病毒,我会答,是,可能还没流感那么可怕。但是(毒性高的)流感在全球传来传去与人类彼此适应至少已经一百年了,而且我们还有疫苗,所以对新冠病毒害怕,不,敬畏的态度是应该的。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-12-11 9:57

我已经打算跟50% 的反科学反疫苗的美国大众和平共处了,昨天看新闻川普在白宫开大party, 不戴口罩,人头涌动, 就觉得这个国家没救了, 科技再发达也救不了他们, 新冠靠疫苗也许能勉强控制住, 谁知道还有啥病毒、细菌在前面等着咱们呢。 我在学术界的时候有段时间因为一个课题比较关注耐药菌的问题, 现在偶尔还是会接触到一些这方面的研发,每次看到都会出一身冷汗。。。
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-12-11 14:19

CMC problem plagues Sanofi-GSK's vaccine product. Phase 3 trial is delayed.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Elysees
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Elysees » 2020-12-11 19:16

Jun wrote:
2020-12-11 8:25

Unfortunately, 反科学反疫苗运动在民间无法抑制,必定会有相当一部分人群(保守派自由派都有)拒绝接种,在美国这种文化环境里更难控制。病毒在人群里的传播肯定是长期的。就算没有这些人,因为 SARS-CoV-2 可以跳到动物宿主身上(猫狗和 mink 都已发生过),扑灭它基本上不可能。连 measles 都能卷土重来,有什么是可以杜绝的呢?至今也只有天花一只而已。人类总有一种自毁倾向,可能啥都改变不了。It's the real plague.

We'll have to live with uncertainty, probably indefinitely. 不要把希望寄托在清零上,谁也不能清零。

每次有人问我,新冠是不是象流感病毒,我会答,是,可能还没流感那么可怕。但是(毒性高的)流感在全球传来传去与人类彼此适应至少已经一百年了,而且我们还有疫苗,所以对新冠病毒害怕,不,敬畏的态度是应该的。
哎,SARS和Ebola基本算清零了吧,就算不谈SARS和Ebola这种烈性疾病。除了Small Pox,在发达国家和大部分发展国家Polio也算清零了吧,Measles卷土重来真的很出乎我意外,而且并不远,就在Oregon和华州这两年都有过爆发。
疫苗的有效性在Small Pox和Polio上体现很清楚,不愿意打新冠疫苗我其实大概能理解,因为毕竟很新,也许长远安全性还不能验证,但其他的那些疫苗不打的人,我真的不能接受。安宝小时候有一阵很流行说打疫苗会引发自闭症,我当时问了他的儿科医生,医生表示这不是真的,打疫苗很必要,一定要打。但我的朋友里很多传这个的,还有到我面前来劝我的。自闭症是另一个话题,就不说了。

最近这段时间很多新闻说美国或者意大利在12月的各种样本里检验出新冠病毒,我好奇的想,什么标本可以把病毒保存这么长的时间?都在冷冻中么?武汉比较早的辨认出来,大概是因为有SARS的历史在前。这么推论一下,有没有可能,其实人类社会有时会有新的病毒/细菌出现,但并没有被认出来呢,如果恰好不致命后果不严重的,会不会新病毒新细菌都没被发现,然后人自己就适应了?
我简直后悔自己当年没学生物医药之类的学科了,太有趣了。
我自横刀向天笑,笑完我就去睡觉。

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