2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

入得谷来,祸福自求。
Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-08-21 2:04

现在多重订购是防止有的疫苗不成功或者太慢。
订多了也没什么关系,放着不用就是了。
据说准备对应pandemic/natural diaster ,怎么判断准备足够充分?就是事后看来太夸张太紧张过度反应。因为准备充分应对的好,最坏情况被防止了。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

笑嘻嘻
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2020-08-21 2:50

哦,细节我忘了说,就是哪怕是疫苗订多了或者有些不成功的没出来,但是订购疫苗的价格比纾困金数量级差别上的要少很多,所以是合理的。
云浆未饮结成冰

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-08-21 2:54

浪费就浪费了,贡献给生物科学研究也蛮好的。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-21 7:06

Knowing wrote:
2020-08-21 2:54
浪费就浪费了,贡献给生物科学研究也蛮好的。
这话我爱听。 :mrgreen:

制药行业本来就是烧钱赌博。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-21 8:22

Pfizer 和德国 BioNTech 的疫苗可能会让川皇的意愿(大选前出疫苗)实现了:

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-relea ... -lead-mrna
Assuming clinical success, Pfizer and BioNTech are on track to seek regulatory review of BNT162b2 as early as October 2020 and, if regulatory authorization or approval is obtained, currently plan to supply up to 100 million doses worldwide by the end of 2020 and approximately 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021
他们是七月上的2/3期临床试验,目前已经有一万多人加入。他们说试验是 "event-driven",试验的终点是感染人数达到预期数目,所以越多人感染上,试验结束越早。考虑到现在的传染率居高不下,貌似还是有希望尽快出结果的。剩下的就是 unblind 看数据比较了。
Last edited by Jun on 2020-08-21 11:25, edited 1 time in total.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-08-21 9:13

川皇的愿望有普京爸爸来满足,俄国疫苗不是已经成功了吗? :mrgreen:
Jun wrote:
2020-08-21 7:06
Knowing wrote:
2020-08-21 2:54
浪费就浪费了,贡献给生物科学研究也蛮好的。
这话我爱听。 :mrgreen:

制药行业本来就是烧钱赌博。

这个,烧掉的也是付给生物学家了。总比给拼多多烧给团推销便宜货强。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-08-21 11:48

Knowing wrote:
2020-08-21 9:13
川皇的愿望有普京爸爸来满足,俄国疫苗不是已经成功了吗? :mrgreen:
Jun wrote:
2020-08-21 7:06
Knowing wrote:
2020-08-21 2:54
浪费就浪费了,贡献给生物科学研究也蛮好的。
这话我爱听。 :mrgreen:

制药行业本来就是烧钱赌博。

这个,烧掉的也是付给生物学家了。总比给拼多多烧给团推销便宜货强。
No, No, No...
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-08-24 2:00

哈哈,trickle down 总有一些搂到生物学家们身上咩。
•俄罗斯本月宣布将推出10亿剂新冠疫苗,但这种疫苗尚未经过后期大规模随机对照试验。面对安全性和有效性的质疑,该国卫生部长表示,“一些外国同行一定是感受到了竞争,并发现了俄罗斯产品的竞争优势,因此试图发表一些我们认为毫无根据的观点。”
太彪悍了!对俄罗斯人的强壮体质表示羡慕嫉妒恨。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-24 7:00

川皇敲锣打鼓地说我们有药,我们批了新药!Breakthrough!FDA 被迫紧急批准了痊愈者的血清用来治疗新冠,但其实前几天就有一些专家,包括 Fauci,表示疗效十分可疑 ... 反正用了死不了就是了。大家谢天谢地被迫批准的不是 Oleandrin。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-24 8:30

香港大学报道发现且证实一例两次被 SARS-CoV-2 感染的患者,两次感染时收集到的病毒 genome 有少量差别,表明有变异。

这个耶鲁大学的病毒学家说得比较清楚:
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/sta ... 4262474758

这个南华早报记者比较糊涂,但是她贴出了论文的原文:
https://twitter.com/cwylilian/status/12 ... 4509698050

Statnews:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/24/fir ... chers-say/

细看论文可以发现,第二次感染是 RT-PCR 检验发现的,感染者毫无症状而且一直无症状,虽然他第一次感染是有症状的。他第一次痊愈后抗体浓度已经降到 undetectable,但是第二次遇到病毒时立刻涨了回来。Obviously ... this is how immune system works ... One gets exposed again and the immune system remembers and restarts. Duh.

Minor mutations usually do not prevent the immune system recognizing the mutated virus ... Because coronavirus is not as clever as influenza.

全世界病毒满天飞的情况下,repeat exposure 肯定是不可避免的呀,更别提这种满世界跑来跑去的人了。但是到现在才偶然抓住一个两次 PCR 阳性的人,而且这个人跟大家一样是无症状。这件事本身就很说明问题。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-08-24 13:34

Jun wrote:
2020-08-24 7:00
川皇敲锣打鼓地说我们有药,我们批了新药!Breakthrough!FDA 被迫紧急批准了痊愈者的血清用来治疗新冠,但其实前几天就有一些专家,包括 Fauci,表示疗效十分可疑 ... 反正用了死不了就是了。大家谢天谢地被迫批准的不是 Oleandrin。
FDA 上周三刚刚hold 了clinical use of plasma 因为data is too weak (连个Placebo 都没用)。 这周一就批了, speechless...
天天见证美国全方位堕落的历史,估计跳大神卖大力丸抗疫也不远了? 搞不好大选前就可以实现。
还有我完全理解无能这个”新药“ ”breakthrough" 都从哪里来的, 没有任何base 啊。 要说COVID 新药, 第一个拿到EUA 的是人们的希望啊, 五月份的事情啊, 至于breakthrough 更是从何谈起啊? 血清疗法古时候就有,没有人血清,还用过马血清的我记得。
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-24 14:09

全国各界都在指鹿为马谎言满天飞的大环境下,FDA也躲不过去。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

vivi
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-08-24 14:23

这个再感染的case我感觉这简直就是good news.
又没头脑又不高兴

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-24 17:14

vivi wrote:
2020-08-24 14:23
这个再感染的case我感觉这简直就是good news.
确实我也觉得消息还算不错,虽然有变异,变异可能导致二次感染,但免疫系统也不是吃素的。

其它类型的 coronavirus 也有再次被感染的历史,估计终生免疫是有点儿困难。如果再次感染仅仅是有 viral shedding 但没有症状,那不太要紧。

一个仍无答案的问题是,这人再次感染之后会不会传染给别人。虽然 viral load 高到可以测出来,但这算不算是 replication-competent 呢?他们没研究所以还不知道。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-08-24 23:44

Jun wrote:
2020-08-24 17:14
vivi wrote:
2020-08-24 14:23
这个再感染的case我感觉这简直就是good news.
确实我也觉得消息还算不错,虽然有变异,变异可能导致二次感染,但免疫系统也不是吃素的。

其它类型的 coronavirus 也有再次被感染的历史,估计终生免疫是有点儿困难。如果再次感染仅仅是有 viral shedding 但没有症状,那不太要紧。

一个仍无答案的问题是,这人再次感染之后会不会传染给别人。虽然 viral load 高到可以测出来,但这算不算是 replication-competent 呢?他们没研究所以还不知道。
你们都这么说我就放心了!
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-08-26 16:45

我看了艾未未的新片《加冕》Coronation , 是他远程指导中国各地的几十名志愿者创作的。拍了不少医院内部的镜头很有价值,我很安慰的看到所有医护人员,包括外地来支援的,都有充足防护设备,病人也得到很好照顾,并没有当初听说的医护缺少装备硬顶,病房爆满病人都躺在过道的揪心惨状,也可能拍的时候已经是武汉封城后有一点时间,供应和人手都跟上了。快递在小区门口隔着栏杆交接。有人拍他妈,一个马列主义老太太,说话口气非常像我外婆,家里的布置也像八十年代,态度挺典型,我看的很莞尔。有个外地来支援建医院的倒霉小伙子被各个政府机构踢皮球拿不到离开的文件,临时安置所他不愿意去,宁愿睡在自己的车里住在车库里,让人感慨官僚的可怕。最后家属排队挨个领骨灰的长镜头相当中国。一个又一个,不说话,默默等着被叫名字。有袋骨灰有点多,殡仪馆工作人员使劲拍来拍去塞不进骨灰盒,最后打开倒进去,盖子貌似也没盖紧压了压外面包裹布打个结,交给家人。我惊恐的意识到这个家人一直看着工作人员在拍打!桌面落了一层灰,工作人员对另一个工作人员说我上楼换个口罩,你把这里用消毒液擦一擦。静默的空城江边仍放着璀璨的灯光秀。一切都很中国。
武汉其实是我的外公外婆家。几乎每年放暑假我妈都带我回去。然而天气太热,我妈忙着打理家务,我被圈在空军大院里很少外出,对它几乎没有了解。想起来很惆怅。

该片在美国可在Alamo上观看,其他国家可在Vimeo上观看。
Image
Image
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-29 19:54

又有几例再次感染的案例被发表出来。Stat News 发了一篇报道:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/28/cov ... lications/

我看了一下内华达州25岁男青年那篇,类似于香港的案例,两次感染的病毒 genome 有少量变异差别。香港案例是第二次比第一次症状轻微,但Reno案例是第二次比第一次症状严重。That seems like bad news. 不过Reno的作者们没有报道(检验?)体内的抗体数量,只知道第二次感染后有 positive IgM/IgG。

比利时的案例类似于香港的,第二次症状比第一次轻微。荷兰的案例是一个免疫力下降的老年人。具体数据尚未发表。
https://www.businessinsider.com/2-new-c ... ong-2020-8

Before you panic though ... This doesn't mean anything about the vaccines. 有人被变异的病毒再次感染,跟未来的疫苗的效果,之间的关系无法预测。任何由此推导到疫苗有效性的说法都可以不加理睬,除非是 AZ 或 Pfizer 或 Sanofi 的疫苗开发主管的病毒学家出来说的话。It's too early to speculate on vaccine efficacy.

随着时间的拉长,病毒变异的趋势是不可避免的,再次感染的案例渐渐在各地浮现,可以说并不是意外。It suggests an increasing likelihood the virus will hang around. SARS-Cov-2的发展轨迹越来越类似于 influenza,虽然看上去没有 influenza 变异得那么快。就算有一部分没有被发现证实的再次感染案例,至今为止(世界传播6-8个月后)还是很罕见很罕见的,换言之再次感染的风险与时间(变异数量)成正比。

The big picture: We're not looking at eradicating the virus, but rather reducing the risk to somewhere below influenza. 我觉得任何国家如果还抱着彻底消灭或零容忍的目标的话很可能会大大失望了。

一个相关但不同的新闻是 polio 大概在非洲被消灭了,已经三年没有病例了。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-08-30 2:55

oxford/AZ 的疫苗现在说再过六周可以出结果。
英国最近一个月逐步开放,每日感染人数比七月份略有上升保持在每日一千上下,每日死亡人数则比七月份略有降低,在十个上下徘徊。下一步是开学,尤其是高中大学开学,不知道会不会带来second wave. 大学生们不怕死,真让人担心哇。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-30 12:54

现在我的态度略微有点改变,年轻人不怕死而且死亡率不高,让他们 carry on herd immunity 大业好了。中老年人离他们远点儿,等他们都互相感染过一两圈儿了就可以了 ...

我意识到一个无法证实的可能性,实际上在人群中做随机抽查也无法确定到底谁被 expose 过,谁没有,因为无症状感染者在痊愈后查 PCR 是肯定查不出的,而三个月后很大一部分连抗体也查不出了,除非查他的 memory T cells,而这是不可能大规模做到的。We don't have a near-precise estimation of who have been exposed and who have immunity. It's all guesswork.

最近又看到数据说抗凝血剂对住院病人有效,我觉得整体上治疗还是有办法的。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-08-30 14:01

再感染这个事儿被确诊的机会也不多,不是第二次特别严重,就是mandatory testing 类似香港这粒。如果再感染是真的,从一月开始应该有成百上千了吧。没有报道是不是因为大多数都是无症状呢。
又没头脑又不高兴

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-30 14:25

vivi wrote:
2020-08-30 14:01
再感染这个事儿被确诊的机会也不多,不是第二次特别严重,就是mandatory testing 类似香港这粒。如果再感染是真的,从一月开始应该有成百上千了吧。没有报道是不是因为大多数都是无症状呢。
再次感染/接触如果无症状,那就是普通意义上的正常免疫力起作用了,即被有记忆的 T cells 迅速消灭。这种情况估计发生过巨多次了。再次感染如果有症状,那就是免疫力不足以消灭病毒,按理说是能够被发现的——这种情况目前罕见。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-08-31 11:13

我好像在那里看到钟南山 (人民日报的正经报道) 说过,再感染的患者体内检测出来的不是活病毒,不需要太担心二次感染后还会传染给别人的。
二次感染不传染是好事儿。
我同意这个不能推断vaccine 无效, 只能说打了之后还需要不断的boost, 类似于破伤风疫苗十年补一针,或是肺炎疫苗年纪大了也要补一样的。 新冠看这个pandemic effect, 估计以后像流感疫苗一样,一年补一针。 对工业界是好消息, good business...
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-31 12:36

lucoco wrote:
2020-08-31 11:13
新冠看这个pandemic effect, 估计以后像流感疫苗一样,一年补一针。 对工业界是好消息, good business...
没错,这话我爱听。年年卖钱,可以用来开发点儿 TB vaccine 或 Lyme disease vaccine 啥的多好。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-08-31 13:01

Jun wrote:
2020-08-31 12:36
lucoco wrote:
2020-08-31 11:13
新冠看这个pandemic effect, 估计以后像流感疫苗一样,一年补一针。 对工业界是好消息, good business...
没错,这话我爱听。年年卖钱,可以用来开发点儿 TB vaccine 或 Lyme disease vaccine 啥的多好。
哈哈,也得看第一世界国家的人民愿不愿意打疫苗啊。
刚刚看经济学人的survey 统计,低于半数的美国人民愿意打covid19 疫苗。
trump 政府订了那么疫苗,估计是想留着倒卖/强卖给别的国家的。
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-31 13:02

去搜了一下没看到一半群众不想打疫苗的新闻,Gallup 的民调数据是35%表示不想打,65%表示愿意。

这个得具体情况具体分析。如果是 My Pillow.com 研制出的疫苗,被川皇在电视上做广告推销,那我也不敢打。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

vivi
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-08-31 14:11

”FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn tells @FinancialTimes his agency is prepared to authorise a vaccine before Phase Three clinical trials are complete, as long as officials believe the benefits outweighed the risks.”

Who is surprised?!
又没头脑又不高兴

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-08-31 14:44

vivi wrote:
2020-08-31 14:11
”FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn tells @FinancialTimes his agency is prepared to authorise a vaccine before Phase Three clinical trials are complete, as long as officials believe the benefits outweighed the risks.”

Who is surprised?!
FDA no longer believes in data and sciences?
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-31 14:49

With government like this who needs enemies?
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-08-31 14:58

Jun wrote:
2020-08-31 14:49
With government like this who needs enemies?
年初的时候一直批评乘火打劫的国内的各种企业,研究机构, 大跃进的搞疫苗,新冠药, 觉得他们在发国难财,不顾老百姓的安危,呼吁政府应该加强管理。
现在发现,美国这都已经是光明正大的政府行为,药企科研机构都是他们的工具啊。
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-08-31 15:02

皇上要怎样就怎样呗。我就是好奇怎么皇上的意愿本来就是让白男们爽一把,结果就是大灾难呢?皇上本来也没故意让大家都瘫倒呀,现在白男们是爽了,怎么结果就是大家都瘫倒了呢?

------------

看到最新临床试验数据,ACE inhibitors 和 angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) 对 COVID-19 好像没什么作用,剂量是一般用来降血压的。嗯,这条路看样子被堵住了呀。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-09-01 20:42

冰岛真是公共卫生之光呀,他们又发表了超高质量的数据:

Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland

他们测抗体的方法就能吓人一跟头,用六种检验方法针对病毒的好几个蛋白质(N protein, receptor binding domain, spike protein),而且IgG, IgM, IgA 全测,绝不漏过。他们的测试 specificity 几乎100%,sensitivity 也在90%以上。
We measured SARS-CoV-2–specific antibodies in up to 30,576 persons with six established assays, targeting pan-immunoglobulin (pan-Ig: IgM, IgG, and IgA) antibodies against the nucleoprotein (N) (Roche); pan-Ig antibodies against the receptor binding domain (RBD) in the S1 subunit of the spike protein (pan-Ig anti–S1-RBD) (Wantai); IgM and IgG antibodies against N (IgM anti-N and IgG anti-N) (EDI/Eagle); and IgG and IgA against the S1 subunit of the spike protein (IgG anti-S1 and IgA anti-S1) (Euroimmun).
结果呢?绝大多数痊愈者不仅产生抗体而且IgG水平持续不降,目前测到最长四个月。(IgM是急性抗体,当然会下降。)

当然他们的结果跟之前其它国家的抗体检测结果不同。他们提出最大可能性是单个抗体检验法的灵敏度或 titer 的准确度不够。
Over 90% of qPCR-positive persons tested positive with both pan-Ig SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays and remained seropositive 120 days after diagnosis, with no decrease of antibody levels as detected by the two pan-Ig assays. We observed some diminution of antibody titer with some of the single-Ig assays. Previous smaller studies reported reduction of IgG antibodies against the N protein and a peptide representing the S protein within 21 to 28 days and against trimeric S protein within 56 days after a positive test by qPCR. These discrepancies may be explained partly by differences in the specificity and sensitivity of the assays used as well as differences in the design and performance of the semiquantitative assays used, including the antigen targeted and the analytic sensitivity and range, as well as differences in the study populations.
就算是传染人数很少,公共卫生程度很高,contact tracing 极度全面的冰岛,他们估计仍有30%无症状没检测到的感染者。相比之下,其它没那么尽善尽美的地区就不用提了,未被发现的感染者(也许有些死掉了,大部分则轻微或无症状)大概得有一半或更多。
We also estimate that 56% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland had been diagnosed with qPCR, 14% had occurred in quarantined persons who had not been tested with qPCR (or who had not received a positive result, if tested), and 30% had occurred in persons outside quarantine and not tested with qPCR.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-09-01 21:47

完全无症状是真的吗?听着好像传说一样。
又没头脑又不高兴

dropby
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by dropby » 2020-09-01 23:13

完全无症状应该是真的吧?就算是感冒你也可以看到一家子里面有的完全没事儿。

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-09-02 3:23

Jun wrote:
2020-09-01 20:42

就算是传染人数很少,公共卫生程度很高,contact tracing 极度全面的冰岛,他们估计仍有30%无症状没检测到的感染者。相比之下,其它没那么尽善尽美的地区就不用提了,未被发现的感染者(也许有些死掉了,大部分则轻微或无症状)大概得有一半或更多。
那是不是落后的英国已经实际上达到了60%-70%的群体免疫了呢????我表示乐观!!!! :mrgreen:
Nevertheless, she persisted.

星光
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 星光 » 2020-09-02 3:27

我有一个朋友,年轻女生,真的是完全无症状,一点不适都没有,之所以查出来是因为我们所住的区搞普查,愿意测的都可以去测,她跟男朋友就去了。
测出阳性以后她同住的男朋友倒是出现了一些轻症(轻微肌肉酸痛,然后嗅觉味觉失去了一段时间),不过很快也就没事了。
法国最近几周测出无数阳性 :f19: 无症状比率挺高的,没记错的话一开始高达57%,后来慢慢降到略低于50%(48%还是49%,记不清了)。

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-09-02 5:58

Knowing wrote:
2020-09-02 3:23
Jun wrote:
2020-09-01 20:42

就算是传染人数很少,公共卫生程度很高,contact tracing 极度全面的冰岛,他们估计仍有30%无症状没检测到的感染者。相比之下,其它没那么尽善尽美的地区就不用提了,未被发现的感染者(也许有些死掉了,大部分则轻微或无症状)大概得有一半或更多。
那是不是落后的英国已经实际上达到了60%-70%的群体免疫了呢????我表示乐观!!!! :mrgreen:
不是的,我没把百分比说清楚。

冰岛全国人民被感染人数,一共毛估估不到1%。其中大约55%是已经用PCR检验抓到的,15%是曾经被quarantine的但是没PCR诊断或者PCR了但是false negative,剩下的30%是既没有被quarantine也没有被PCR的,一直无声无息在人群中晃荡。其实上面我的推断还不太对,那个15%里面也有很多因为无症状而没被PCR的。冰岛又不缺PCR test kit,如果没被PCR,那是真没症状也没理由检验了,应该极少是象美国人这种就算有症状也懒得去,不在乎,怕不能去工作没钱,医疗没保障等等原因而不检验。

换言之,说到底还是SARS-CoV-2的感染者中有40%(到50%)是真的无症状。这方面的估计颇为一致。

另外此研究表明,检验抗体还是可以抓住曾感染者的,包括无症状,但是需要同时检验不止一种针对性抗体,否则就不准。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-09-02 20:04

"CDC Director Redfield sent a letter to governors "urgently" requesting them to expedite applications for vaccine distribution facilities and waive requirements that would prevent them "from becoming fully operational" by November 1,
@CBSNews confirms. First reported by @mcclatchy"

这个是哪一只疫苗?
又没头脑又不高兴

Knowing
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-09-03 4:48

俄国疫苗吧,普金大帝女儿亲自打过的那一只,放心吧。
...CDC 没说,就说在准备两只,疫苗A和疫苗B。根据技术细节被猜测是 Moderna and Pfizer.
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-09-03 6:06

管特么是什么疫苗呢,反正没有足够的数据我也不敢打,先等等再说吧。

为什么非要在十一月之前给人都打上疫苗?大选呗,这点小算盘谁看不出啊。公器私用呗。

如果我是不差钱的大药厂,敢不敢配合川皇用 Phase 2 数据上市产品,我还得多掂量掂量。如果数据不足就上市了,出点事儿,以后少不了被民事诉讼,更重要的是名声受损,得不偿失,那时候再去找 FDA 算账还来得及么?Moderna 估计会孤注一掷上市的,大公司图个啥?川普这种人不就是每件事都是纯利己的目的么?出点什么事马上把你扔巴士底下。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

tiffany
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by tiffany » 2020-09-03 6:55

催生疫苗已经凑合了。FDA 刚刚被按着批了痊愈者血清,批准书上就差大字红描没有证据说它有用,那不也批了。
有酒有酒 闲饮东窗

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-09-03 8:01

血清和新疫苗之间,我觉得还是血清稍微好点,毕竟打了也不会死人,而且 supply 有限,没法批量生产。新疫苗要是效果麻麻,打过的人还以为自己刀枪不入了,跑到外面瞎混,分分钟感染被感染,贻害一大片。 :dog001:

如此急不可耐地敲锣打鼓地祸害本国人民的领袖倒也不算很常见。我就好奇精神胜利的威力有多大,自己死活都不顾了也要挺川,就为 own the libtards 一时爽,这种粉丝精神真是让人惊 。。。骇呀。 :shock:
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Knowing » 2020-09-03 8:07

liberal 劝大家打疫苗要慎重,保守派迫不及待上疫苗上血清。我表示感到混乱。 :mrgreen:
Nevertheless, she persisted.

lucoco
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by lucoco » 2020-09-03 11:57

Moderna, pfizer 的疫苗都有storage issues, 需要全程冷链运输储存的, 前段时间已经吵了很久他们怎么解决distribution, facility 啥的都没法ready 啊。
moderna 肯定要上的, 拿着政府的钱做的, 又借机股市上面割了大量韭菜, 简直是典型的double dipping. 最后damage one way or another 都会转嫁到老百姓头上的, 真是的,反反复复被蹂躏, 普罗大众的命运怕不是天下大同。
一个人的性格决定他的命运。

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-09-03 12:51

疫苗做到三期不会特别不安全吧,就怕没效果,多少liability啊。
国内灭活那只8月开始给医护人员大,3月全面上市,听说。
又没头脑又不高兴

Jun
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by Jun » 2020-09-03 13:20

这几支疫苗我觉得都挺安全的,因为都不是整个病毒而是片断而已。灭活的全病毒理论上风险高一点,具体不清楚。所以实际上风险是有效性,实打实需要很多很多人试验才能看出跟 placebo 的差别来,抄近路只有一条:direct challenge,这就只能找军队来“志愿”试验。

This is not ideology. This is science. 现实可不管你信什么,如伽利略所说,地球还是绕着太阳转,我说太阳绕着地球转,有用吗?不过川皇这个大选之前硬上疫苗的政策根本也不是 ideology,就是纯自私自利拿屁民当猴耍罢了。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

dropby
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by dropby » 2020-09-03 17:35

我们下周要开学了,本来小学生全部回校上课,被家长们吵的,说现在疫情又很严重了回校太不负责了,所以最后一分钟提供了网课和回校结合的选项。欢乐因为是特别的班级,只能要么回校要么自己在家做作业,没网课。我选了回校后不放心去看了一下疫情,觉得控制得还不错啊,加拿大过去一两个月每天死人也就几个到十几个之间。不过我们本地住院人数的确上升了。但是生活总要慢慢恢复,娃在家转眼半年了我实在够了,赶紧回去吧。大学好象全部都网课。我感觉加拿大人怕死程度至少是美国人的10倍。

不过娃回校后要让他们离我妈远一点就是了。我在考虑让我妈除了吃饭基本呆她自己房间得了,把电视机搬她房间。

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-09-03 18:31

我们今天开学。天主教堂学校10%选网课,非天主教会学校30%,中文双语50%。我们省现在是加拿大covid的hot spot。我闺女学校一班27个人。
又没头脑又不高兴

dropby
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by dropby » 2020-09-03 19:03

vivi wrote:
2020-09-03 18:31
我们今天开学。天主教堂学校10%选网课,非天主教会学校30%,中文双语50%。我们省现在是加拿大covid的hot spot。我闺女学校一班27个人。
华人比较谨慎。你们网课是全网课吗?

欢乐今年可算一块儿上学了,我不用发愁接送两个孩子,乐乐也不用去after school care了。macc班共20个人,不知道有没有不返校的。明年欢欢上中学了,希望明年这时候已经没事儿了。

vivi
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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by vivi » 2020-09-03 19:38

dropby wrote:
2020-09-03 19:03
vivi wrote:
2020-09-03 18:31
我们今天开学。天主教堂学校10%选网课,非天主教会学校30%,中文双语50%。我们省现在是加拿大covid的hot spot。我闺女学校一班27个人。
华人比较谨慎。你们网课是全网课吗?

欢乐今年可算一块儿上学了,我不用发愁接送两个孩子,乐乐也不用去after school care了。macc班共20个人,不知道有没有不返校的。明年欢欢上中学了,希望明年这时候已经没事儿了。
本来是只有基础英文的大纲有网课,所有special programs都没有(包括双语),结果看到一半人选网课才加开的。时间来不及网课要下周才开。不过学校也不容易。保守党UCP才上台就解雇了700个老师。UCP在pandemic的时候忙着和医护人员打仗,要私有化health care。我们省是加国的德州。天下保守党都是一个妈生的。
又没头脑又不高兴

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Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 医学信息链接

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2020-09-03 21:10

vivi wrote:
2020-09-03 19:38
天下保守党都是一个妈生的。
:lol: :lol: :lol:
云浆未饮结成冰

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