英国脱欧

入得谷来,祸福自求。
Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-13 9:24

如果把 backstop 放在海里(北爱与英苏格兰岛之间),是不是可以符合 Good Friday 协议而解除爱尔兰冲突的危险呢?至少暂时可以控制下,长期的事儿他们也不在乎。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2019-12-13 9:51

是的,backstop是边界问题的最好解决方案。当然不脱欧->没边界更好。但是,backstop不就是把北爱当成英联邦之外了吗?Unionists感觉被背板了。爱尔兰共和军杀人的总数更多,但后期(80年代?)北爱死在Unionists手下的人更多。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-13 9:58

北爱啊,恐怕得看长期周围的走向了。苏格兰现在就越来越想脱离英联邦呢,如果苏格兰脱了,北爱还胡思乱想个啥。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2019-12-13 10:04

是啊,苏格兰有可能第二次独立公投。

我现在很担心2020年美国大选了。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-13 10:19

昨天刚看到印度政治形势恶化的新闻。

The world will stay bad for a while, maybe a long while.

我甚至有点奇怪为什么到现在还没打起来,很有马上就要打起来的感觉。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-13 11:15

还有法国呢。本来明年春假想去欧洲的,还是算了,去日本吧。

全世界都是一团混乱。 :action077:

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-13 11:17

唐唐的郁金香 wrote:
2019-12-13 10:04
是啊,苏格兰有可能第二次独立公投。

我现在很担心2020年美国大选了。
你担心川普会连任?不是本来大家就觉得川普会连任嘛,除非有奇迹发生。民主党这些候选人里,除了andrew yang哪一个也不象能斗得过川普的样子。但是andrew yang会得到民主党内支持的可能性几乎没有。

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-13 11:35

小美从哪儿看的说法Andrew Yang能斗得过川普?Biden才是民调里超过川普最多的候选人。当然现在看民调数字还太早。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2019-12-13 12:46

你们一说2020大选我的焦虑度又升高了。 :let_me_die: :let_me_die: :let_me_die:
Nevertheless, she persisted.

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-13 15:59

Jun wrote:
2019-12-13 11:35
小美从哪儿看的说法Andrew Yang能斗得过川普?Biden才是民调里超过川普最多的候选人。当然现在看民调数字还太早。
我自己觉得的。 :mrgreen:

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2019-12-14 4:06

Andrew Yang 是下次辩论七位候选人中唯一一个非白人。希望他这次能有机会多发言!对亚裔青少年太有正面影响了
Nevertheless, she persisted.

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2019-12-14 8:19

dropby wrote:
2019-12-13 11:17
唐唐的郁金香 wrote:
2019-12-13 10:04
是啊,苏格兰有可能第二次独立公投。

我现在很担心2020年美国大选了。
你担心川普会连任?不是本来大家就觉得川普会连任嘛,除非有奇迹发生。民主党这些候选人里,除了andrew yang哪一个也不象能斗得过川普的样子。但是andrew yang会得到民主党内支持的可能性几乎没有。
对啊,我没觉得川普会连任。

Andrew Yang怎么会斗过川普。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-14 13:50

Andrew Yang已经争取了很多川粉了。杨帮里不少穷白人铁粉是前川粉。UBI是真正对铁锈带人民有帮助的政策。

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2019-12-17 12:07

关于Andrew Yang争取川粉这件事,我也很好奇,到底争取了多少?搜了一下,根据这个链接:

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... ters-rate/

比拜登、沃仁强,但不如桑德斯。这个统计只包括2016年投了川普但2020年准备投民主党的选民,样本量小而且结果没被重复过。
How Andrew Yang fares among Trump voters who plan to vote in the 2020 Democratic primaries
Survey dates July 21-23
Yang’s percentage of Trump voters in poll:10%
Other candidates who rated higher than 10% in poll:Bernie Sanders 14%
Number of candidates who rated higher than Yang in poll: 1
politifact的总结:
Our ruling
Yang said, "I'm one of only two candidates in the field that 10% or more of Donald Trump voters say they would support in the general" election.

This claim comes from one poll in July that sampled 41 Trump voters who said they planned to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus. The question has been asked by the same pollster weekly since July, and those results have never been replicated.

Even if they had, the margin of error for a sample size that small is about 15 percentage points, rendering them essentially meaningless.
如果有其它数据愿闻其详。

我相信华川里支持Andrew Yang的人有,可能还比较多,但华人选民数量少啊。

根据这个链接:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... angs-base/ Yang的选民比较年轻,男性为主,而且,争取了亚裔铁杆选民(Yang also draws meaningful support from Asian Americans),结论仍然是“Yang is also an outsider candidate”
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-17 13:25

杨因为不是是建制派,偏民主党的主流媒体一直对他不怎么报道。几大主流媒体被杨帮抗议不知道多少次了。比如民调结果,比杨百分比低的人在上面,杨不在上面。而且不是一次两次,而是很多次。第五次民主党辩论,头三十分钟杨完全被无视了。现在的基本问题就是很多选民根本就不知道他,不管是民主党还是共和党。知道是第一步,了解是第二步,然后才有可能改变立场。现在第一步就困难重重。

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2019-12-17 13:38

对不起,这不能全怪媒体。杨 是个is a single issue candidate and a shitty debater, 几次辩论除了 Freedom dividend 没有任何能给人留下印象的时刻。相对来说,我听过他的访谈,在时间充裕时他可以很好的叙事, 真诚而有说服力,但是大舞台十个人debate 需要交互,话题不由某人控制的,需要你不管啥话题能硬插进去就插进去啥问题都要offer 自己的解决方案或者扯到自己的主张和政绩上,他经常杵那儿不说话,表现实在不怎么地。结果就是每次都说话最少。希望这次人少些他能表现好点
Last edited by Knowing on 2019-12-17 13:43, edited 1 time in total.
Nevertheless, she persisted.

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-17 13:43

没说全怪媒体啊,但是媒体的确有偏向也不能否认吧。

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2019-12-17 13:55

不喜欢辩论赛这种讨论方式,搞得好像优秀的领导人和辩论赛冠军是一回事似的。我是对Andrew Yang能争取到多少铁锈带川粉有怀疑,种族因素没被考虑在内,很难相信厌恶奥巴马的白人会投票给一个黄种人。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-17 14:05

我也不喜欢看辩论,但美国的选举机制缺乏向全国人民传递自己的政策立场的有效渠道,辩论会至少收视率高,不想参加也得参加。

Andrew Young 没有过去的政绩 track record,让人没法判断他在处理各方面政治问题上的能力与立场,小K说他是 single-issue candidate 正是问题所在。美国的社会矛盾固然一大部分是经济方面的,但社会方面的冲突也很多,如果候选人拿不出明确而有影响力的立场也难得到足够的支持。就算能争取到相当数量的保守派青年白男,但失去了黑人、女性等民主党基本盘,那也是成问题。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

tiffany
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by tiffany » 2019-12-17 14:08

Andrew Yang 基本不可能,亚裔;同理,彭博也不可能,犹太人
有酒有酒 闲饮东窗

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-17 14:33

Bernie Sanders 也是犹太人。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-18 10:13

Andrew Yang 刚刚被538网站分析了,具体文章如下,对他有兴趣的读者可以看看:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... angs-base/

Yang's base is young, very male, Asian American, self-identified independent. Overall support ~4%.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2020-01-31 16:47

新议会上台后毫无悬念通过BJ的脱欧协议,今天午夜英国正式脱欧。我尽量一天都避免想这个问题,埋头工作。半夜要睡了突然听见外面有人放烟花庆祝。真想出去找到谁家放烟花往他家玻璃窗上砸几块砖头!
Nevertheless, she persisted.

笑嘻嘻
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2020-01-31 17:04

哇塞,最后一句真是心有戚戚啊。
云浆未饮结成冰

豪情
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 豪情 » 2020-01-31 20:37

我的感想是全球化和文明一样如此脆弱,那么快就分崩离析。
却将万字平戎策 换得东家种树书

CAVA
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by CAVA » 2020-02-01 4:17

点赞苏格兰


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Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2020-02-01 4:23

下次苏格兰再要投脱离英国独立的票我也没啥可说的了

Image
Nevertheless, she persisted.

CAVA
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by CAVA » 2020-02-01 15:34

上次苏格兰独立公投时我很紧张,现在支持。

英国政府鼓吹的新黎明今天是这样的,坐标英格兰东部Norwich

Image

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2020-02-02 13:00

警察已经在查这个条谁贴的。
今天伦敦发生恐怖袭击,离我家不远,死了两个人,袭击者被警察当场击毙。看来二月份也没有转运迹象哇。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2020-02-02 14:32

想在这贴上用中文写俩字:放屁
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Lily L
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Lily L » 2020-02-04 2:54

一眼那到那张纸上的British first 熟悉的配方,熟悉的味道

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2021-01-01 7:44

我来给这个历时四年半的闹剧贴个尾巴吧。双方在最后一秒达成协议,双方贸易没有关税和配额,但是所有的进出口报关手续都存在。人员自由流动停止了。For better or for worse, 英国从此离开欧盟,并没有能留在统一市场之内。
英国脱欧列车抵达终点。2020年12月31日格林尼治时间23点,伦敦大本钟敲响,过渡期结束,英国彻底脱离欧盟。

自2016年全民公投开始,经历两次大选、考验过3位首相,经过各种“截止期限”,一年前确定脱欧,在过渡期结束前一周,2020圣诞夜(12月24日),双方达成协议,30日欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和欧洲理事会主席米歇尔签字,同一天经英国议会批准写入《欧盟(未来关系)法》,再获女王伊丽莎白二世御准,协议自31日23点生效。

英国脱欧了 然后会有哪些变化?
英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)宣称“这个伟大国家的命运从此牢牢掌握在我们手里”,支持者欢呼迎来“新时代新曙光”。《经济学人》网说,“英国失去了欧盟,今后在国际间能找到怎样的位置”,而留欧派坚持认为脱欧不如留欧。

即使达成了友好分手协议,分家毕竟是分家,还是会带来诸多重大变化。英国警察将无法分享欧盟内部的罪案、指纹和通缉犯数据库资料,但欧盟法庭对英国和欧盟国家的纠纷不再具有裁决权。

此外,在旅行、移民、商业、海外居住和生活等方面,两边的商家和民众会遇到不少新情况。


出国旅行


人员自由跨境流动结束。从1月1日起,英国公民到欧盟申根协议国旅行,可以免签证逗留90天(包括欧盟成员国、冰岛、挪威、瑞士和列支敦士登)。此外,护照有效期必须超过6个月,旅行保险需包含医疗险。

现有欧盟医疗保险卡(EHIC)作废,将来可能会有新的安排替代。宠物入境规定、手机漫游收费标准等具体规定将有变化,入境过关时必须在欧盟以外其他国家公民通道排队。

因为新冠疫情,非欧盟国家的旅客如果没有规定许可的几个理由不得入境欧盟,这条禁令现在也适用于英国护照持有者。

免税店重获新生。从欧盟回英国,允许携带免税商品包括42升啤酒、18升葡萄酒、4升烈性酒和200枝卷烟。


留学、工作、移民


英国“积分制”移民签证制度启动,欧盟(除爱尔兰)同样适用。

2020年12月31日前已经住在英国的欧盟公民(包括冰岛、瑞士、挪威和列支敦士登,爱尔兰除外)现有权益延长到2021年6月,之后必须申请相应的签证或许可证。

同样,英国人原来在欧盟自动享受的居住、学习、工作等权益终止,待遇将和其他非欧盟国家公民一样。

已经在欧盟居住的英国公民,比如现在侨居法国的英国人,需要根据所在国家新规定更新自己的居住许可,包括申请工作签证、移民签证或永久居留证。


贸易


虽然没有关税,但英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士商家还是要跟其他非欧盟国家一样填海关报关表,多了一层手续。植物、活动物和其他一些商品进出口仍需特殊证明和许可。

英国公司在欧盟经商投资,不再享受欧盟成员待遇,涉及到各种法规和专业资格认证等事项,须要遵守各国对非欧盟国家的相关法规。

同样,英国可以单独跟世界其他国家谈判双边贸易协议。


北爱尔兰


北爱尔兰将成为例外。北爱和爱尔兰边界等于英国和欧盟的边界,原来是“无形边境”,将来仍旧“无形”,不设边境检查站。

北爱将继续遵循欧盟许多法规,货车过境免检,但部分英国国内商品进入北爱时需要经过新的检查。肉、鱼、蛋类进入北爱必须符合欧盟标准。超市有3个月缓冲期,部分肉类商品缓冲期为6个月。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2021-01-01 8:02

北爱尔兰是跟爱尔兰无边界的意思吗?人员流动怎么办呢?欧盟居民在北爱工作定居是随英国规定还是爱尔兰规定?
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2021-01-01 8:07

不清楚,感觉北爱跟爱尔兰没国界,跟Britain 有国界似的。IRA闹那么多年恐怖活动没闹成的独立,BJ捎手就给实现了。人比人气死人!
苏格兰在闹第二次独立公投,不知会怎么样。
很多后果一时还不明显,要过段时间sink in。 大家走着看吧。

花边新闻是brexit 协议刚在国会通过,BJ的爹马上递了法国公民申请。等了很久了吧,大概被BJ苦苦哀求他爹等完事儿再申请。BJ的爹是留欧派,在法国出生的,妈妈是法国人。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

唐唐的郁金香
Posts: 408
Joined: 2006-03-02 9:51

Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2021-01-01 10:46

边界问题到底还是采用了backstop, 除了死硬Unionist,其他人都松了一口气。维持目前爱尔兰和北爱边界的原状,打起来可能性基本没有了。

北爱出生的人仍然可以申请爱尔兰和英国护照。
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-norther ... d-55488686

爱尔兰和英国之间另有travel agreement。英国人进入北爱不需要查护照(签证),从北爱进入爱尔兰共和国也不需要,但从爱尔兰去欧盟其它国家需要签证。同理,持爱尔兰护照不需要签证就可以去英国。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

Jun
Posts: 26580
Joined: 2003-12-15 11:43

Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2021-01-01 13:27

看上去爱尔兰人民得到 best of both worlds 嘛。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

唐唐的郁金香
Posts: 408
Joined: 2006-03-02 9:51

Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2021-01-01 15:19

Possibly the best of all the bad solutions。北爱人并不想离开EU。Unionists不想要海上的backstop,并不是支持硬边界。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

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