英国脱欧

入得谷来,祸福自求。
Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-13 9:24

如果把 backstop 放在海里(北爱与英苏格兰岛之间),是不是可以符合 Good Friday 协议而解除爱尔兰冲突的危险呢?至少暂时可以控制下,长期的事儿他们也不在乎。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

唐唐的郁金香
Posts: 282
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2019-12-13 9:51

是的,backstop是边界问题的最好解决方案。当然不脱欧->没边界更好。但是,backstop不就是把北爱当成英联邦之外了吗?Unionists感觉被背板了。爱尔兰共和军杀人的总数更多,但后期(80年代?)北爱死在Unionists手下的人更多。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-13 9:58

北爱啊,恐怕得看长期周围的走向了。苏格兰现在就越来越想脱离英联邦呢,如果苏格兰脱了,北爱还胡思乱想个啥。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

唐唐的郁金香
Posts: 282
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2019-12-13 10:04

是啊,苏格兰有可能第二次独立公投。

我现在很担心2020年美国大选了。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-13 10:19

昨天刚看到印度政治形势恶化的新闻。

The world will stay bad for a while, maybe a long while.

我甚至有点奇怪为什么到现在还没打起来,很有马上就要打起来的感觉。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-13 11:15

还有法国呢。本来明年春假想去欧洲的,还是算了,去日本吧。

全世界都是一团混乱。 :action077:

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-13 11:17

唐唐的郁金香 wrote:
2019-12-13 10:04
是啊,苏格兰有可能第二次独立公投。

我现在很担心2020年美国大选了。
你担心川普会连任?不是本来大家就觉得川普会连任嘛,除非有奇迹发生。民主党这些候选人里,除了andrew yang哪一个也不象能斗得过川普的样子。但是andrew yang会得到民主党内支持的可能性几乎没有。

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-13 11:35

小美从哪儿看的说法Andrew Yang能斗得过川普?Biden才是民调里超过川普最多的候选人。当然现在看民调数字还太早。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2019-12-13 12:46

你们一说2020大选我的焦虑度又升高了。 :let_me_die: :let_me_die: :let_me_die:
Nevertheless, she persisted.

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-13 15:59

Jun wrote:
2019-12-13 11:35
小美从哪儿看的说法Andrew Yang能斗得过川普?Biden才是民调里超过川普最多的候选人。当然现在看民调数字还太早。
我自己觉得的。 :mrgreen:

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2019-12-14 4:06

Andrew Yang 是下次辩论七位候选人中唯一一个非白人。希望他这次能有机会多发言!对亚裔青少年太有正面影响了
Nevertheless, she persisted.

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2019-12-14 8:19

dropby wrote:
2019-12-13 11:17
唐唐的郁金香 wrote:
2019-12-13 10:04
是啊,苏格兰有可能第二次独立公投。

我现在很担心2020年美国大选了。
你担心川普会连任?不是本来大家就觉得川普会连任嘛,除非有奇迹发生。民主党这些候选人里,除了andrew yang哪一个也不象能斗得过川普的样子。但是andrew yang会得到民主党内支持的可能性几乎没有。
对啊,我没觉得川普会连任。

Andrew Yang怎么会斗过川普。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-14 13:50

Andrew Yang已经争取了很多川粉了。杨帮里不少穷白人铁粉是前川粉。UBI是真正对铁锈带人民有帮助的政策。

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2019-12-17 12:07

关于Andrew Yang争取川粉这件事,我也很好奇,到底争取了多少?搜了一下,根据这个链接:

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... ters-rate/

比拜登、沃仁强,但不如桑德斯。这个统计只包括2016年投了川普但2020年准备投民主党的选民,样本量小而且结果没被重复过。
How Andrew Yang fares among Trump voters who plan to vote in the 2020 Democratic primaries
Survey dates July 21-23
Yang’s percentage of Trump voters in poll:10%
Other candidates who rated higher than 10% in poll:Bernie Sanders 14%
Number of candidates who rated higher than Yang in poll: 1
politifact的总结:
Our ruling
Yang said, "I'm one of only two candidates in the field that 10% or more of Donald Trump voters say they would support in the general" election.

This claim comes from one poll in July that sampled 41 Trump voters who said they planned to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus. The question has been asked by the same pollster weekly since July, and those results have never been replicated.

Even if they had, the margin of error for a sample size that small is about 15 percentage points, rendering them essentially meaningless.
如果有其它数据愿闻其详。

我相信华川里支持Andrew Yang的人有,可能还比较多,但华人选民数量少啊。

根据这个链接:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... angs-base/ Yang的选民比较年轻,男性为主,而且,争取了亚裔铁杆选民(Yang also draws meaningful support from Asian Americans),结论仍然是“Yang is also an outsider candidate”
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-17 13:25

杨因为不是是建制派,偏民主党的主流媒体一直对他不怎么报道。几大主流媒体被杨帮抗议不知道多少次了。比如民调结果,比杨百分比低的人在上面,杨不在上面。而且不是一次两次,而是很多次。第五次民主党辩论,头三十分钟杨完全被无视了。现在的基本问题就是很多选民根本就不知道他,不管是民主党还是共和党。知道是第一步,了解是第二步,然后才有可能改变立场。现在第一步就困难重重。

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2019-12-17 13:38

对不起,这不能全怪媒体。杨 是个is a single issue candidate and a shitty debater, 几次辩论除了 Freedom dividend 没有任何能给人留下印象的时刻。相对来说,我听过他的访谈,在时间充裕时他可以很好的叙事, 真诚而有说服力,但是大舞台十个人debate 需要交互,话题不由某人控制的,需要你不管啥话题能硬插进去就插进去啥问题都要offer 自己的解决方案或者扯到自己的主张和政绩上,他经常杵那儿不说话,表现实在不怎么地。结果就是每次都说话最少。希望这次人少些他能表现好点
Last edited by Knowing on 2019-12-17 13:43, edited 1 time in total.
Nevertheless, she persisted.

dropby
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by dropby » 2019-12-17 13:43

没说全怪媒体啊,但是媒体的确有偏向也不能否认吧。

唐唐的郁金香
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 唐唐的郁金香 » 2019-12-17 13:55

不喜欢辩论赛这种讨论方式,搞得好像优秀的领导人和辩论赛冠军是一回事似的。我是对Andrew Yang能争取到多少铁锈带川粉有怀疑,种族因素没被考虑在内,很难相信厌恶奥巴马的白人会投票给一个黄种人。
Ultimately, happiness comes down to choosing between the discomfort of becoming aware of your mental afflictions and the discomfort of being ruled by them. -- Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-17 14:05

我也不喜欢看辩论,但美国的选举机制缺乏向全国人民传递自己的政策立场的有效渠道,辩论会至少收视率高,不想参加也得参加。

Andrew Young 没有过去的政绩 track record,让人没法判断他在处理各方面政治问题上的能力与立场,小K说他是 single-issue candidate 正是问题所在。美国的社会矛盾固然一大部分是经济方面的,但社会方面的冲突也很多,如果候选人拿不出明确而有影响力的立场也难得到足够的支持。就算能争取到相当数量的保守派青年白男,但失去了黑人、女性等民主党基本盘,那也是成问题。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

tiffany
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by tiffany » 2019-12-17 14:08

Andrew Yang 基本不可能,亚裔;同理,彭博也不可能,犹太人
有酒有酒 闲饮东窗

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-17 14:33

Bernie Sanders 也是犹太人。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2019-12-18 10:13

Andrew Yang 刚刚被538网站分析了,具体文章如下,对他有兴趣的读者可以看看:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... angs-base/

Yang's base is young, very male, Asian American, self-identified independent. Overall support ~4%.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2020-01-31 16:47

新议会上台后毫无悬念通过BJ的脱欧协议,今天午夜英国正式脱欧。我尽量一天都避免想这个问题,埋头工作。半夜要睡了突然听见外面有人放烟花庆祝。真想出去找到谁家放烟花往他家玻璃窗上砸几块砖头!
Nevertheless, she persisted.

笑嘻嘻
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2020-01-31 17:04

哇塞,最后一句真是心有戚戚啊。
云浆未饮结成冰

豪情
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by 豪情 » 2020-01-31 20:37

我的感想是全球化和文明一样如此脆弱,那么快就分崩离析。
却将万字平戎策 换得东家种树书

CAVA
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by CAVA » 2020-02-01 4:17

点赞苏格兰


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Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2020-02-01 4:23

下次苏格兰再要投脱离英国独立的票我也没啥可说的了

Image
Nevertheless, she persisted.

CAVA
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by CAVA » 2020-02-01 15:34

上次苏格兰独立公投时我很紧张,现在支持。

英国政府鼓吹的新黎明今天是这样的,坐标英格兰东部Norwich

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Knowing
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Knowing » 2020-02-02 13:00

警察已经在查这个条谁贴的。
今天伦敦发生恐怖袭击,离我家不远,死了两个人,袭击者被警察当场击毙。看来二月份也没有转运迹象哇。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Jun » 2020-02-02 14:32

想在这贴上用中文写俩字:放屁
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Lily L
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Re: 英国脱欧

Post by Lily L » 2020-02-04 2:54

一眼那到那张纸上的British first 熟悉的配方,熟悉的味道

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