崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

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Knowing
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Knowing » 2019-06-01 1:57

前天我去追星啦,Jared Diamond 来伦敦推销新书 upheaval. 可以视为崩溃的姐妹篇,比较七个国家国家如何应对突如其来的危机。老头风采相当赞,明敏锐利,记忆力奇佳,说到历史事件日期毫无阻滞的信口拈来。他说书中的七个国家都是他长期生活过,对国家文化比较了解,除了一个其他他都能说本地语言(他能说十二种语言!),并有很好熟悉该国历史的资源(朋友)支持。他实在太渊博,把我和素食男都听呆了。比如我们根本不知道芬兰1918年血腥内战互相屠杀的死亡记录(人口百分比)到几十年后卢旺达大屠杀才被打破。我们以为nordic 四国都是先进的文明国家理想社会哦!

开头说六十一年前在剑桥读研,我心说你不得八十多了嘛,后来查了查八十一,也就是说人家天赋异禀二十岁就读研了。又聪明又活得长实在是无敌组合!达芬奇一样的人物。

Image
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Jun » 2019-06-01 8:29

太厉害了!

肯定会有人问他,现在全球性的 upheaval 会怎样收场吧?他对于现状有什么评论吗?

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我正在看一本书,1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed. 作者 Eric Cline 在前言里就提到了 Collapse 这本书。其实这一本也是研究 collapse 的,只是他的研究范围牵涉到地中海一圈儿好几个国家的关系(即 globalization 模型)而非一个国家/环境的崩溃。两本书可以对照着看。

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现在我有点好奇想看中国史,但不是传统历史那种 inward gaze 而是向外的看法,看中原和邻国之间的关系以及两边消长的形势对于内部政治经济和社会的影响。说起来宋朝和周边关系,唐朝和周边关系,都是材料非常丰富的研究点。

有没有同学知道好看的此类史书可以推荐一下?
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

april
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by april » 2019-06-01 10:48

一?真巧,妹妹刚给我推荐1177BC来着,看来我得看看去。
唐朝和周边我就看过陈寅恪那篇外族盛衰之连环性。很全面。看撒马尔汗金桃时候的给的连接没法看了,百度这里还有一篇
陈寅恪全集里面也有,在最后。
再附上一篇陈寅恪总集目录,很好用,有时候想找某篇文章或者看看他都写过些啥,然后可以各取所需去买散装本。比方外族盛衰这篇就收在《隋唐制度渊源略论稿•唐代政治史述论稿 》这单行本里,而且现在在国内的网店还可以买得到,所以上次有朋友回国帮我带了一本回来。
He looked like a small panther, and he moved like a patch of night.

Knowing
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Knowing » 2019-06-03 4:20

Jun wrote:
2019-06-01 8:29
太厉害了!

肯定会有人问他,现在全球性的 upheaval 会怎样收场吧?他对于现状有什么评论吗?
他嘲笑了半天brexit :shock: :let_me_die: :let_me_die: :let_me_die: :let_me_die:
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Jun » 2019-06-03 6:49

april wrote:
2019-06-01 10:48
一?真巧,妹妹刚给我推荐1177BC来着,看来我得看看去。
唐朝和周边我就看过陈寅恪那篇外族盛衰之连环性。很全面。看撒马尔汗金桃时候的给的连接没法看了,百度这里还有一篇
陈寅恪全集里面也有,在最后。
再附上一篇陈寅恪总集目录,很好用,有时候想找某篇文章或者看看他都写过些啥,然后可以各取所需去买散装本。比方外族盛衰这篇就收在《隋唐制度渊源略论稿•唐代政治史述论稿 》这单行本里,而且现在在国内的网店还可以买得到,所以上次有朋友回国帮我带了一本回来。
谢谢四月。

看了10%上下的 1177 BC,又看了一点点外族盛衰之连环性,手背上的寒毛刷刷地立起来。唐外族史中提到突厥多年遭雪灾,吐蕃遭地震,而被唐军打败,完全跟 1177 BC 里说的某国衰落情况吻合,气候(旱灾)与地震。

另外 1177 BC 中开篇就说到,打仗和贸易是并行的,甚至有时打仗就是贸易。其实这也适用于中原与外族之间的历史,只是我们看到的主流史论以胜败看关系而疏于讨论交流并将之限于“和平时期”。

(也许新开一贴专讲 1177 BC,其实比 Jared Diamond 老头的书还难啃,太复杂了。怪不得 Diamond 选择一个一个案例地写。)
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

april
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by april » 2019-06-03 11:42

Jun wrote:
2019-06-03 6:49
(也许新开一贴专讲 1177 BC,其实比 Jared Diamond 老头的书还难啃,太复杂了。怪不得 Diamond 选择一个一个案例地写。)
开!
我才看到7%。这种崩溃好像在欧洲/地中海地区很常见(比方罗马帝国陷落-》黑暗中世纪)。相比之下中国的大一统好像就打散了这种大乱变成朝代更迭的小乱。

所以是不是长远来看中国的模式也许也有它的好?!
He looked like a small panther, and he moved like a patch of night.

Jun
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Jun » 2019-06-03 13:36

大乱黑暗期vs小乱,恐怕也没什么好或不好的判断,再说都是没得选的,是啥样就是啥样了。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Jun
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Jun » 2020-12-15 7:18

Diamond 在这本书里描写的 Montana 的情况 (2000年代) 给我印象挺深,大意是畜牧和气候变化让当地经济赔钱,但是外地搬来的大亨们喜欢当地景色,不想发展工业啥啥的。结果昨天在广播里听到报道,硅谷大亨砸巨资买下 Montana 土地,想要打造私营的 national park 式地区,面临当地人反弹。

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/12 ... ve-rancher
Alison Fox is head of an effort to turn it into the largest nature reserve in the nation. She’s the CEO of American Prairie Reserve, known as APR, a project backed by Silicon Valley funders who have spent millions of dollars buying up private land with the intent of creating an American Serengeti.
So far, with help from big donors, APR has purchased more than 30 private properties and needs at least 50 more to make the vision complete. Critics say the reserve will change local ranchers’ way of life.
Robbins feels the APR's vision of an American Serengeti is an assault on her business, culture and those living and working within the bounds of the planned reserve. She’s now leading an effort called “Save the Cowboy” to halt the project.
我觉得这很明显是城乡对立的另一个反应。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-15 7:45

我竟然不知道该站在那一边。
英国也有人干这个,买了地还给自然,主要是很多湿地沼泽被排干改农田对环境不好。
我在看第三只黑猩猩。寒心的读到历史上那么多genocide,怎么以前我根本不知道。原来他的论点就是:人类基本不关心其他民族国家地区发生的genocide, 所以你们不知道太正常了,极少数大家都知道的是例外,碰巧符合一二三个条件。我更寒了。被说中了。
也许现在城市人就在某种程度上genocide 乡村人,也许川普是乡村人最后的(不幸的)挣扎,痴心错付。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Jun » 2020-12-15 8:47

我也是,很复杂的感觉。

立刻联想到工业革命的圈地运动了。技术的进步不一定带来幸福。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Ginkgo
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Ginkgo » 2020-12-15 11:12

Jun wrote:
2020-12-15 7:18
Diamond 在这本书里描写的 Montana 的情况 (2000年代) 给我印象挺深,大意是畜牧和气候变化让当地经济赔钱,但是外地搬来的大亨们喜欢当地景色,不想发展工业啥啥的。结果昨天在广播里听到报道,硅谷大亨砸巨资买下 Montana 土地,想要打造私营的 national park 式地区,面临当地人反弹。
跟西方人对西藏的态度一样,不能发展,最后的净土,香格里拉,blah blah blah, 反之就是 against religious freedom, ethnic cleansing。我们需要一个灵魂向往所在、想象有个被时间遗忘的角落可以洗涤我这被现代科技和金钱诱惑玷污的灵魂。

Knowing
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-15 12:25

这还是不一样,西藏大老远的。蒙大拿环境变差是家门口,直接影响。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Jun » 2020-12-15 12:32

Montana 的农民也不要工业化,他们要保持三代相传的畜牧业生活方式。

当然啦,三代之前那是印第安人的地盘,轮不到这些牧民啥事儿。

现在硅谷大亨搞的 APR 受到了当地印第安部落保留地的支持。
Last edited by Jun on 2020-12-16 9:32, edited 1 time in total.
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-15 12:34

神奇的衔接上了
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Ginkgo
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Ginkgo » 2020-12-16 11:38

Knowing wrote:
2020-12-15 12:25
这还是不一样,西藏大老远的。蒙大拿环境变差是家门口,直接影响。
就因为距离遥远对他们没有切身影响,才越发要把香格里拉的神话发扬光大。一个地方、文化不管在我们现代城市人眼里怎么好像百年、千年没变,并不说明他们真的一直都没有改变。人类历史就是不断利用、改变、适应环境的历史,no where we haven't left our mark。Some of the most beautiful landscapes are the result of human touches. 我们眼里的古朴是人家当地人一定要的生活品质吗,还是人家没得选择? 历史上没改变的、或是改变得太慢的文化早就销声匿迹了,被丛林、沙漠吞噬了连个痕迹都不留。我相信干净饮用水、现代医学药物技术、普及基本教育,必要的交通系统是一个民族、一个文化得以生存的基本。人都不在了谁去保证文字、文化、传统的流传, 还是我们满足于a few words from some dead language which no one can read or speak。发展肯定会对环境有所改变,引进外面的东西对传统的当地文化会有冲击,怎么平衡得失,就看当地人的智慧了。May the wisdom of their unique culture and tradition play a better role than some of ours. 英国电视里老开玩笑London weekenders 叫乡村本地人讨厌。刚开始城里人来购房也许对当地经济有点刺激,但长期下来搞不好一个村子就成半个鬼城、平日里没几个人住了。全球哪里都一样,有钱人逃离闹市偶尔在乡下、外州、外国小住,然后要求当地一成不变、不要发展,满足自己暂时逃避现实的需求,眼前的美景不变、房地产保值,一面又维持outsider的自由,对当地的人文参与和财力投资有限,难免会和本地人有冲突。发展不是绝对好事,不发展同样也不是。No one likes to have some rich guy overlording them,especially at their own expense.

Knowing
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-16 17:08

我不是希望为百万富翁保留美景啊。不谈香格里拉,蒙大拿这个组织并不是要求蒙大拿人活在原始社会,而是希望恢复biodiversity, reintroduce 蒙大拿在被开发成养牛牧场前存在的动物种类,在生态保护上是很有正面意义的。威胁到了牧场主的利益:食草动物跟牛群争食物,捕食动物增加会攻击牛群。(以前也是有的吧?断背山里他们忙着搞基,小牛就被狼吃了)。
人类并不拥有自然,当地人同样不拥有当地的环境。保护环境这种事情私人组织拿着亿万富翁的钱干容易招人恨,政府来做比较好,但是政府瘫痪的地方有什么办法呢?
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Jun » 2020-12-16 17:33

Knowing wrote:
2020-12-16 17:08
人类并不拥有自然,当地人同样不拥有当地的环境。保护环境这种事情私人组织拿着亿万富翁的钱干容易招人恨,政府来做比较好,但是政府瘫痪的地方有什么办法呢?
嗯 ... 现实是,美国境内每一寸土地都有是有主人的,没有一块地是无主的荒地,哪怕看上去挺荒凉的。就算是 Teddy Roosevelt 以及后来人划归国家的土地,还经常被后来的执政党拿出来卖给或租给石油公司随便开采。川皇刚刚卖掉一块极有争议的阿拉斯加动物保护区,这块地被能源工业觊觎很久了,一直没能得手,川皇趁着自己最后一个月还有点权力就租掉了。

不管是哪个部落哪个民族,说到底都是人类,人类跟环境的关系是没法完全维持和平的,总是充满了血腥和掠夺,哪怕对人类也许很好,很高大上,很进步,很开心。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

tiffany
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by tiffany » 2020-12-16 23:10

对啊,生而为人,我觉得大部分人对所谓 creature comfort 还是喜欢的。所以未开发地区看上去没变,不代表他真的没变,也不意味着本地人不希望变化。就按着某遥远地区的人过脏乱差的实际生活为了满足别人的精神向往----有钱人这趣味还真是,有钱!

不过话说搞经济的把自然资源换钱的本事还真是大大的。好比美洲大陆,白人登陆之前,土地是共享的,基本。白人来了之后就成商品了。现在加州那边儿好像水和空气都商品化了,我就很好奇这么发展下去是不是以后呼吸也要交呼吸税了......
有酒有酒 闲饮东窗

dropby
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by dropby » 2020-12-17 0:12

tiffany wrote:
2020-12-16 23:10
对啊,生而为人,我觉得大部分人对所谓 creature comfort 还是喜欢的。所以未开发地区看上去没变,不代表他真的没变,也不意味着本地人不希望变化。就按着某遥远地区的人过脏乱差的实际生活为了满足别人的精神向往----有钱人这趣味还真是,有钱!

不过话说搞经济的把自然资源换钱的本事还真是大大的。好比美洲大陆,白人登陆之前,土地是共享的,基本。白人来了之后就成商品了。现在加州那边儿好像水和空气都商品化了,我就很好奇这么发展下去是不是以后呼吸也要交呼吸税了......
刘慈欣的《赡养人类》里,空气也都是属于别人的私有财产.......

Knowing
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-17 1:23

二氧化碳排放量就是商品。这比空气还悬。
你们是对旅游业有什么误会吗?非要原汁原味脏乱差?作为追求舒适的动物我到乡村也还是喜欢过住的暖和睡的舒服吃的好的。事实上我现在就在一个这样的美丽乡村茅屋里 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 香格里拉这类地方,保护好环境发展旅游业比发展工业来钱快而省力。交通那么偏远资源也不丰富就不要硬搞工业甚至大规模农业了吧....旅游业搞得好,完全兼容山清水绿和愉快生活。杭州就非常明确的一直只有轻工业(丝绸什么的)不准搞重工业,西湖周围不准建高层建筑,并不妨碍杭州人民生活水平提高,也没妨碍杭州蹭蹭蹭的成为信息产业新中心。我最爱的考资伍兹,塔斯肯尼,都很好的保留了中世纪美景,也没耽误生活水平。
Nevertheless, she persisted.

Jun
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Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Jun » 2020-12-17 7:01

小K说得对,绝大多数旅游者——可不仅是美国旅游者, which 跟西欧旅游者又有极大文化差异——都不想去什么脏乱差的地方,修好了设施而且又保持了自己的历史和文化,才有足够的人愿意来。真正想“原汁原味”猎奇的那是极少数,也带不来效益。

不过 Montana 的情况是另一回事,畜牧业早就实质破产,就算没用硅谷大亨来买他们的农场变成 nature reserve,加州和纽约交的联邦税实质上已经贴补他们多年了。他们死死抓住 "our way of life" 不放,还不全是靠了小州不成比例的政治权力嘛。当年冲死印第安人的 "way of life" 开农场,可以看作是“技术进步”,现在又要保留“我们的文化”了?嗯 ... 人类就是充满了讽刺的物种啊。
There was nothing to warn anyone about. The world went on, even as it fell apart, changed irrevocably, became something strange and different. --- "Acceptance" in The Southern Reach Trilogy by Jeff VanderMeer

Knowing
Posts: 33228
Joined: 2003-11-22 20:37

Re: 崩溃 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Post by Knowing » 2020-12-17 17:34

拜登任命了一个印第安裔女性当内政部长。再次开心的说,election has consequences 。
In a historic decision, President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. has chosen Deb Haaland, a congressional representative from New Mexico and a Native American, to lead the Interior Department, an agency that for much of the nation’s history played a central role in the dislocation and abuse of Indigenous communities from coast to coast.

She would oversee a sprawling department responsible for some 500 million acres of public lands, including national parks, oil and gas drilling sites and endangered species habitat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/17/clim ... e=Homepage
Nevertheless, she persisted.

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